you are wrong! it can never be guaranteed when there are prize limits.
Every 10k points you get a ticket, and that ticket can be a prize or not.
Think about it, if there are 3075 prizes to be distributed other than the ranking, at the beginning of the event each Dec burned gives 3 points, 3333.33 Dec burned = 10 K points = 1 ticket
If only 10M Dec's are burned the chance is 1 ticket = 1 prize...if more Dec's are burned, the chance of receiving a prize decreases, meaning you may not win anything, only GP.