Markets like these get split into Pool A and Pool B speculators where Pool A ultimately profits and Pool B ultimately loses. The entire market is driven on this and Pool A people will rarely share valuable information with Pool B people because that's where their profits come from. We can pretend like there's no secret but if that were true and it's all just guessing then you would see more Pool B speculators pass the threshold into Pool A but Pool B speculators mostly stay in Pool B or exit the market entirely once they have suffered enough losses. The problem is that everyone looks like a genius in a bull market so it takes some time for Pool B to realize their lot and can easily get caught up in a sunk cost fallacy once they do.