Expansion in America
The United States is in the midst of a sustainable expansion. With the election of Donald Trump, watch for a boost in growth from the potential fiscal stimulus.
Euro-Uncertainty
Once Article 50 is triggered, the actual act of EU departure could take any number of forms. Watch for uncertainty to stifle the United Kingdom’s economy in the interim.
New Leadership
Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States. He has offered a range of policies on which his administration might focus, so watch for various corresponding impacts on the U.S. and global economies.
Edgy Elections
Three major euro-area economies – the Netherlands, France, and Germany – are holding elections in 2017. Watch for a continuing rise in Euro-skepticism and potential surprises in the European Union.
Global Growth
The global economy is in a mild but synchronized upturn. Watch for potentially quick growth in the United States – a positive for virtually all world economies.
Continued Stability
China’s economy has stabilized and deflation pressures are easing. Watch for the central government to continue lower interest rates, easing the pressure from high debt levels.
Lagging Implications
The Bank of Japan made two significant policy changes in the second half of 2016. Watch for negative impacts on the yen in the long-term and positive impacts on Japanese company profits in the meantime.
Trade Tremors
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump assailed U.S. trade with China and promised to add a huge tariff to all Chinese imports. Watch for potential anti-trade action to affect China and emerging markets.
Rising Interest Rates
If tax reform happens, watch for two or three rate hikes in the United States. Also, watch for the trend of mildly rising rates to continue in the United Kingdom.
Higher Stock Prices
Stocks have worked well in the United States for seven years and continue to do so. Watch for higher stock prices through the first months or half of 2017, and for U.S. stocks to outperform other world regions.
