With February is almost past midway and as per the earlier communication, Splinterland's new collection Conclave Arcana is supposed to be released in April. If the new set is going to be released at April, then it is atmost 2-3 months when this set is going to be released. There is also the probability of pack prices being reduced, so that cheaper pack might motivate more people to buy the packs. So if packs getting sold then what will be the preferred currency to buy them?
Splinterland's team accepts many currencies including DEC and SPS if one wants to buy the packs. The only difference is that they accept all the currency as per the market value but they accept DEC at $1 per 1000 DEC even if market value is less.
If you see the above charts, DEC price is moving up but still it is 75 cents per 1000 DEC and it is almost on 25% discount. I expect it to move up when the conclave arcana pack sale starts or the date of the pack sale is announced. It also depends on how much packs that players are willing to buy in the Conclave arcana sale.
DEC is now rarely minted (like ranked rewards leaderboard price) and keep getting constantly burned in market sales, rental market, Voucher pool swaps so it has net deflationary pressure. If you see the right side of the chart, you will see players holds on 1050 million DEC, even if it is accepted at par, then liquid DEC market cap of around 1.05 million Dollars. ( I also assume that land unstaking do not take place.). If we add DEC staked in Land then it will become close to 2.5 millon USD.
Looking at the stats of Rebellion, rebellion sold around 1 million packs, that amounts to $4 million USD. Assuming the same modest success that rebellion had, and the packs being priced at $2, it simply means that we will run out of all the available liquid DEC. Overall Rebellion packs fetched more than $4 million USD revenue, I expect Conclave Arcana to be at least sell 5 million packs (if pack priced at $2) because player need to buy Conclave card if they want to play in Modern. Since CHAOS will be rotated out of modern, Rebellion is not so much in supply and circulation, one need Conclave cards for modern format.
If above assumption about DEC is correct, then one needs to burn SPS for DEC and it will definitely put "buy" and "burn" pressure on SPS to meet DEC demands. Actually I am expecting DEC to go above peg and expecting some 40% gain on current price of 75 cents per thousand DEC but in other hand I am expecting at least 2-3x on the current SPS price in that scenario.
My 2 cents:
I have a gut feeling on the DEC and SPS prices in coming future and it is all based on my assumption so invest your money after doing your own DYOR.
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