Hey Crypt.

There's a huge difference between trading and investing. If you will recall, years ago I explained that most crypto traders engaged in "technical analysis" and that, in doing so, they were engaging in self-fulfilling prophecies. That is, if a large number of traders employ the same (or similar) technicals indicators, they can collectively cause the very movements that their indicators are supposedly predicting.

We have now (finally) arrived at a point where at least some cryptos can be judged upon fundamentals (or quasi-fundamentals for lack of better word). Over the past week, the price of Hive went from $0.99 to $3.36 to $2.05 (at the time of this writing). Did something about the blockchain's fundamentals change over the past 7 days? When I logged into Hive yesterday (Thanksgiving) to say "Hi" to a few old friends, I was surprised to learn that Hive was trading at $1.69! "What gives?" So, as an ex-hedge manager, the first thing I did was look up some basic stats.

@penguinpablo/daily-hive-stats-report-friday-november-26-2021

Take a look at "3. Daily Accounts transacting." Over a period of months, the activity level has increased from about 12,000 to about 14,000. That's a positive ... but does it constitute a fundamental change in the blockchain's condition?

Look at the next stat: "4. Posts + Comments per post." Is this the kind of activity that justifies a legitimate tripling of Hive's price?

Amazon's price has skyrocketed because it's selling a LOT of stuff online. Tesla's selling a ton of electric cars. Hive's primary raison d'etre is the production of social media content. Is there any evidence that it is producing more social media content or gaining more social media users?

No, there isn't.

Sustainable price increases require sustainable increases in underlying activity. Hype, hoopla and hyperbole created but fleeting effects. I'd love to see Hive hit $20 but until the fundamentals change, this pump is likely to be as lasting as the last dozen.

Quill