I've been thinking a lot about these two concepts recently, especially with regards to the Covid 19 pandemic.
I'm getting used to uncertainty. It's not easy.
Strangely, I felt quite certain a few months ago, when news of the outbreak in Wuhan was limited to Twitter and other corners of the internet. It was the knowledge of something big coming. I felt certain-and was vindicated.
But that certainty hasn't carried over as the country has shut down. In fact, it seems like the future is suddenly much more open ended. With 1 in 6 Americans unemployed (and who knows how many worldwide), the world has suddenly gotten more interesting, and more dangerous.
For instance, the stock market dropping by 30% within a few weeks was not nearly as surprising as its rapid bounce back up. While there tend to be bull traps in these bear markets, I couldn't have imagined we'd be back as high as we are already. My expectation is that it goes back down (and that's where my money is), but the FED has shown willingness to print money to prop up Big Business to such an extent that it may not matter.
So while market fundamentals are awful, the stock market itself is a mystery. It seems completely divorced from reality.
There are a lot of strong opinions from people Twitter and Facebook. They all share one thing in common: an attempt to feel certain about the future. These opinions become entrenched beliefs as I watch friends and strangers duke it out, proxy warriors in what are often media driven narratives.
But before we lose friendships over this, we should recall that the media botched this. FOX called it a "flu". Vox mocked tech bros who were taking responsibility for their health by wearing masks and avoiding contact.
While there is plenty of real news to be found (start with the Associated Press or Reuters), most of the industry is focused around editorials spun by loud entertainers. What will he say next!? is an awful, but viable way to get viewers to return after the commercial break.
We have ourselves to blame if we keep ingesting this, but some people may not know where to find alternatives.
I think the key is finding information sources that allow us to be comfortable with a level of uncertainty that is vastly different from the 20th century media model. We must strip out the unnecessary narratives and use our brains and known facts to create working ones to replace them.
This is especially important as we try and determine what the best course of action is to avoid disaster from the Covid 19 pandemic, whether humanitarian or economic.
Notice, I said we must strip out "unnecessary narratives". I don't think we can toss aside all narratives. Our lives must have meaning.
Personally, I have created a mental model that puts my faith at the highest level of certainty: it is the hill I will die on, the one that creates decisions for everything else. There is nothing I am more certain of than my Catholic Faith; it is as close to 100% as anything will ever be in life.
When it comes to political beliefs, I am much more pragmatic. Of course, my political beliefs are modeled from my religious beliefs. However, there are a number of competing narratives on how to do that. I have held political beliefs in the recent past that I no longer hold; these can come and go much more easily, as I constantly reevaluate whether the model fits reality.
On other topics, I try to remain open minded. I've seen and heard too much poison from media personalities over completely inconsequential things. Once, while driving through Wisconsin, I heard a local AM radio DJ griping about roundabouts and how awful they were. How many people passively accepted her dislike of roundabouts without any critical thought, and were now certain that they were a negative for traffic and safety?
(I think roundabouts are overall good, but as I have no idea of the actual stats, it should come as little surprise that I allow myself to be uncertain about their efficacy.)
It's a difficult habit to drop, but I'm trying to have less opinions about things that don't matter to me, and more curiosity in general.
I'm open to others' thoughts on this. I'm trying to live a life that leads to more truth, and less certainty. I don't think those two are mutually exclusive concepts.
Do you?
-Jeff
