While I do agree with most of the things you said, I can't be "that sure" of market prices... If I were to, I would probably sell all my crypto and buy back in 4-5 months 20-30% more tokens... 😃 But, I do agree with you about the probabilities...
And regarding black swans... Trump doing his thing is just kicking the can down the road... It's maybe a distraction, it's maybe catching the last straw, but the debt is too big to be solved with anything of this... Plus, ordinary Americans can maybe fall into the trap in the first weeks/months, but usually, they wake up and push back against war agendas and a hostile environment toward other countries...
I hate politics... But unfortunately, nowadays, it's the main force that moves markets...
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RE: What's BTC really doing, are we in a bull or bear?