There are 1694 valid entries in 2000 SBD World Cup guessing competition and no one guessed right all the results. How well are you doing? For each good guess, add 1 point into your score. After 8 matches no one had 8 points so you might still have a chance even with few wrong results. We will also look how well Steemit’s average guess is doing.
After 4 matches, only 60 Steemit users had all 4 points, most users had 2.
After fifth game of France vs Australia the stats didn’t change much since 95% people guessed right.
Sixth match ended up unexpectedly for 95%, only 87 users expected Argentina to tie Iceland.
Next two games ended up the way the majority of Steemit users expected with 46% believed in Denmark’s win and 57% trusted Croatia. After this point, no user had 8 point from 8.
If you picked the results as I recommended, there would be 541 users ahead of you after 5 matches, 524 users after 6 matches, 556, 272, 178, 367, 375, 383, 284, 276 and 254 users ahead of you after 14 matches.
(Red arrow shows number of points for Steemit's average moving after each match.)
15th match ended differently than average of Steemit users thought so more users get above average, exactly 309, next match 366, 262, 259 and 242 after 19th match was above average compared to 1096 below the average.
(Pink bar shows number of points for Steemit's average moving after each match.)
Distribution of points after 20 matches.
Distribution of points after 25 matches.
Distribution of points after 29 matches.
Distribution of points after 34 matches.
Distribution of points after 40 matches.
State after 40 matches.
Steemit’s average points:
25 (only 3 points behind top score)
(How many points do you have if you guessed the same way as Steemit’s average.)
Number of users above average:
27
Number of users below average:
1603
The most points:
28
Number of users with the most points:
1
Current leader:
My recommendation was to choose winner if more than 40% of users choose the team, if no team has over 40%, choose tie. Let’s look how would you end up if you do as I suggested.
| Score | Win probability | Team | Team | Win probability | Tie probability | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:0 | 86% | Russia | vs | Saudi Arabia | 6% | 8% | 1 |
| 0:1 | 9% | Egypt | vs | Uruguay | 77% | 14% | 1 |
| 0:1 | 49% | Morocco | vs | Iran | 23% | 28% | 0 |
| 3:3 | 20% | Portugal | vs | Spain | 51% | 29% | 0 |
| 2:1 | 95% | France | vs | Australia | 2% | 3% | 1 |
| 1:1 | 92% | Argentina | vs | Iceland | 3% | 5% | 0 |
| 0:1 | 23% | Peru | vs | Denmark | 46% | 31% | 1 |
| 2:0 | 57% | Croatia | vs | Nigeria | 21% | 22% | 1 |
| 0:1 | 35% | Costa Rica | vs | Serbia | 37% | 28% | 0 |
| 0:1 | 92% | Germany | vs | Mexico | 3% | 5% | 0 |
| 1:1 | 95% | Brazil | vs | Switzerland | 2% | 3% | 0 |
| 1:0 | 58% | Sweden | vs | South Korea | 17% | 25% | 1 |
| 3:0 | 89% | Belgium | vs | Panama | 3% | 8% | 1 |
| 1:2 | 3% | Tunisia | vs | England | 91% | 6% | 1 |
| 1:2 | 58% | Poland | vs | Senegal | 17% | 25% | 0 |
| 1:2 | 69% | Colombia | vs | Japan | 16% | 16% | 0 |
| 3:1 | 52% | Russia | vs | Egypt | 22% | 26% | 1 |
| 1:0 | 92% | Portugal | vs | Morocco | 3% | 5% | 1 |
| 1:0 | 89% | Uruguay | vs | Saudi Arabia | 5% | 5% | 1 |
| 0:1 | 2% | Iran | vs | Spain | 96% | 2% | 1 |
| 1:0 | 86% | France | vs | Peru | 4% | 10% | 1 |
| 1:1 | 52% | Denmark | vs | Australia | 17% | 31% | 0 |
| 0:3 | 72% | Argentina | vs | Croatia | 8% | 20% | 0 |
| 2:0 | 93% | Brazil | vs | Costa Rica | 2% | 5% | 1 |
| 2:0 | 46% | Nigeria | vs | Iceland | 27% | 28% | 1 |
| 1:2 | 21% | Serbia | vs | Switzerland | 44% | 36% | 1 |
| 5:2 | 86% | Belgium | vs | Tunisia | 6% | 8% | 1 |
| 2:1 | 92% | Germany | vs | Sweden | 2% | 6% | 1 |
| 1:2 | 13% | South Korea | vs | Mexico | 68% | 19% | 1 |
| 6:1 | 93% | England | vs | Panama | 3% | 4% | 1 |
| 2:2 | 39% | Japan | vs | Senegal | 33% | 28% | 1 |
| 0:3 | 27% | Poland | vs | Colombia | 39% | 34% | 0 |
| 3:0 | 55% | Uruguay | vs | Russia | 18% | 27% | 1 |
| 2:1 | 14% | Saudi Arabia | vs | Egypt | 66% | 20% | 0 |
| 2:2 | 95% | Spain | vs | Morocco | 2% | 3% | 0 |
| 1:1 | 3% | Iran | vs | Portugal | 93% | 4% | 0 |
| 0:0 | 7% | Denmark | vs | France | 74% | 19% | 0 |
| 0:2 | 34% | Australia | vs | Peru | 42% | 25% | 1 |
| 1:2 | 5% | Nigeria | vs | Argentina | 82% | 13% | 1 |
| 1:2 | 15% | Iceland | vs | Croatia | 61% | 24% | 1 |
| - | 3% | South Korea | vs | Germany | 94% | 3% | |
| - | 44% | Mexico | vs | Sweden | 23% | 33% | |
| - | 2% | Serbia | vs | Brazil | 93% | 6% | |
| - | 54% | Switzerland | vs | Costa Rica | 20% | 26% | |
| - | 22% | Japan | vs | Poland | 58% | 21% | |
| - | 15% | Senegal | vs | Colombia | 63% | 23% | |
| - | 39% | England | vs | Belgium | 31% | 31% | |
| - | 26% | Panama | vs | Tunisia | 44% | 30% |
The rest will be updated in comment section.
Coming soon
After group stage, I will post analysis of the last stage with useful tips how to win.
Data
If you want to look at the data yourself, look at 