World Cup Result Analysis

There are 1694 valid entries in 2000 SBD World Cup guessing competition and no one guessed right all the results. How well are you doing? For each good guess, add 1 point into your score. After 8 matches no one had 8 points so you might still have a chance even with few wrong results. We will also look how well Steemit’s average guess is doing.

After 4 matches, only 60 Steemit users had all 4 points, most users had 2.

After fifth game of France vs Australia the stats didn’t change much since 95% people guessed right.

Sixth match ended up unexpectedly for 95%, only 87 users expected Argentina to tie Iceland.

Next two games ended up the way the majority of Steemit users expected with 46% believed in Denmark’s win and 57% trusted Croatia. After this point, no user had 8 point from 8.

If you picked the results as I recommended, there would be 541 users ahead of you after 5 matches, 524 users after 6 matches, 556, 272, 178, 367, 375, 383, 284, 276 and 254 users ahead of you after 14 matches.

(Red arrow shows number of points for Steemit's average moving after each match.)
15th match ended differently than average of Steemit users thought so more users get above average, exactly 309, next match 366, 262, 259 and 242 after 19th match was above average compared to 1096 below the average.

(Pink bar shows number of points for Steemit's average moving after each match.)

Distribution of points after 20 matches.

Distribution of points after 25 matches.

Distribution of points after 29 matches.

Distribution of points after 34 matches.

Distribution of points after 40 matches.

State after 40 matches.

Steemit’s average points:

25 (only 3 points behind top score)
(How many points do you have if you guessed the same way as Steemit’s average.)

Number of users above average:

Number of users below average:

1603

The most points:

Number of users with the most points:

1
Current leader:
Hive account@pablitomoreno's post

My recommendation was to choose winner if more than 40% of users choose the team, if no team has over 40%, choose tie. Let’s look how would you end up if you do as I suggested.

Score	Win probability	Team		Team	Win probability	Tie probability	Points
5:0	86%	Russia	vs	Saudi Arabia	6%	8%	1
0:1	9%	Egypt	vs	Uruguay	77%	14%	1
0:1	49%	Morocco	vs	Iran	23%	28%	0
3:3	20%	Portugal	vs	Spain	51%	29%	0
2:1	95%	France	vs	Australia	2%	3%	1
1:1	92%	Argentina	vs	Iceland	3%	5%	0
0:1	23%	Peru	vs	Denmark	46%	31%	1
2:0	57%	Croatia	vs	Nigeria	21%	22%	1
0:1	35%	Costa Rica	vs	Serbia	37%	28%	0
0:1	92%	Germany	vs	Mexico	3%	5%	0
1:1	95%	Brazil	vs	Switzerland	2%	3%	0
1:0	58%	Sweden	vs	South Korea	17%	25%	1
3:0	89%	Belgium	vs	Panama	3%	8%	1
1:2	3%	Tunisia	vs	England	91%	6%	1
1:2	58%	Poland	vs	Senegal	17%	25%	0
1:2	69%	Colombia	vs	Japan	16%	16%	0
3:1	52%	Russia	vs	Egypt	22%	26%	1
1:0	92%	Portugal	vs	Morocco	3%	5%	1
1:0	89%	Uruguay	vs	Saudi Arabia	5%	5%	1
0:1	2%	Iran	vs	Spain	96%	2%	1
1:0	86%	France	vs	Peru	4%	10%	1
1:1	52%	Denmark	vs	Australia	17%	31%	0
0:3	72%	Argentina	vs	Croatia	8%	20%	0
2:0	93%	Brazil	vs	Costa Rica	2%	5%	1
2:0	46%	Nigeria	vs	Iceland	27%	28%	1
1:2	21%	Serbia	vs	Switzerland	44%	36%	1
5:2	86%	Belgium	vs	Tunisia	6%	8%	1
2:1	92%	Germany	vs	Sweden	2%	6%	1
1:2	13%	South Korea	vs	Mexico	68%	19%	1
6:1	93%	England	vs	Panama	3%	4%	1
2:2	39%	Japan	vs	Senegal	33%	28%	1
0:3	27%	Poland	vs	Colombia	39%	34%	0
3:0	55%	Uruguay	vs	Russia	18%	27%	1
2:1	14%	Saudi Arabia	vs	Egypt	66%	20%	0
2:2	95%	Spain	vs	Morocco	2%	3%	0
1:1	3%	Iran	vs	Portugal	93%	4%	0
0:0	7%	Denmark	vs	France	74%	19%	0
0:2	34%	Australia	vs	Peru	42%	25%	1
1:2	5%	Nigeria	vs	Argentina	82%	13%	1
1:2	15%	Iceland	vs	Croatia	61%	24%	1
-	3%	South Korea	vs	Germany	94%	3%
-	44%	Mexico	vs	Sweden	23%	33%
-	2%	Serbia	vs	Brazil	93%	6%
-	54%	Switzerland	vs	Costa Rica	20%	26%
-	22%	Japan	vs	Poland	58%	21%
-	15%	Senegal	vs	Colombia	63%	23%
-	39%	England	vs	Belgium	31%	31%
-	26%	Panama	vs	Tunisia	44%	30%

The rest will be updated in comment section.

Coming soon

After group stage, I will post analysis of the last stage with useful tips how to win.

Data

If you want to look at the data yourself, look at Hive account@super007’s post. You may count your points yourself of you can just find your place at this post.