Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: What I learned about crypto
26 September 2017
Obviously I learned more than how volatile prices can be, how little to trust technical analysis, that many events are not determinants of how prices move, or indicators of acceptance in the wider community.
I learned that the midnight price could seem to bear no relation to the mid-day price or the afternoon price, on some days. They tended to even out of the day, in periods of normal trading. See the % difference from the day before, and the difference the next day (a section I have started to add). These are almost stock market variations rather than speculative boiler-room figures.
What has happened?
Rather than repeat myself, I am offering here links to my previous entries in this series. This will take you to the summary pages for you to explore through the dates, if you wish.
Week 1: 26 August - 3 September 2017
27 August 2017
Tetlock's principles
Applying the principles
The predictions
The fundamental question
Calculating the percentages
Scores
Determinants and indicators
28 August 2017: Recap
Prices and percentages
29 August 2017: Changes
Prices and percentages
30 August 2017: Eight cryptocoins
31 August 2017
1 September 2017
Commentary
Monaco
Ethereum
Litecoin
Monero
Indicators as of 1 September 2017
2 September 2017: Bitcoin at $5000
On to $6500?
Tips on getting help
Paper on superforecasting in U.S. government
Commentary
Bitcoin
Litecoin
Monaco, Ripple, Monero, Zcash
3 September 2017: Review of week and tips
Week 2: 4 - 10 September 2017
4 September 2017: the big slide
A 'bear trap'?
OmiseGO added
5 September 2017: Slipping and sliding
Refunds neede
Warnings
IRS explains move against coinbase
Cryptocoins and imperfect information
Deliberately opaque?
Other problems
The day's results
Tether added
6 September 2017:the rebound
Cryptocoins rebound, Ethereum moves forward
Ethereum milestone
1-hour to 7-day percentage view on coinmarketcap
State of the Blockchain Q2 frm coindesk
7 September 2017: skin in the game
State of the Blockchain Q2 frm coindesk
BTC
8 September 2017: MGIF
Cause: another China report?
IOTA: down then up?
Monero's drop explained
Why I'm scoring it at -1%
9 September 2017: no indicators worth scoring
Canadian province approves Bitcoin fund manager
After the intense trading
10 September 2017: irrational exuberance?
The cliff
Played by Wall Street?
11 September 2017: review, the Swiss connection
Are indicators determinants?
Few solid developments, but many small ones
Will all boats rise with the tide?
Revising the goals
Japan's GMO goes into bitcoin mining
12 September 2017: recovery or shorting problems?
Slow recovery
Ethereum's new token standard now formalized
Big Money changing the crypto market?
13 September 2017: Who's leading the decline?
Who's trading?
Why I'm dropping Monaco, Monero and Tether
Adding a new crypto: STEEM
Vitalik Buterin, Nick Szabo Among Guests at Global Blockchain Summit Shanghai
North Korea 'targeting South's exchanges'
South Korea's Coinone launches physical cryptocurrency exchange
Bitcoin, Ether, Dash and Litecoin Now Sold at 1800+ Austrian Post Offices
Not the first
IBM Joins Car eWallet for driverless vehicles
First tokenized US$ available on Ethereum
Japan-South Korea to test blockchain bank transfers
US Dept of Homeland Security awards blockchain grants
BitKan suspends over-counter service in China
Sony and IBM partner to use blockchain in student data management
Ripple Labs and R3 in legal dispute over email
14 September 2017: making sense of the drop
The fall and the talk
"Correction Not a Crash. Traders Take Profits"
Why no scoring todays
15 September 2017: Good morning, good morning?!?
After the bloodbath?
AXA uses blockchain for smart flight insurance
Raiden for download
Increased acceptance: Ukraine,Andra Pradesh, U.S. General Services Administration
16 September 2017: Ignore the market
Ignore today's market
Report affirms crypto 20x more lucrative
Higher transaction fees
Google, Apple and Others adopting crypto-compatible API for browsers
Chase Bank buys bitcoin as Jamie Dimon rejects it
17 September 2017: Focus on underlying forces
New in U.S. ? alt-coin IRA accounts
First decentralized gaming loyalty programme
Biggest cryptocurrency and blockchain event on September 26
Why China is banning BTC exchanges
Bitcoin: Three Ways the Bubble Could Pop
Eye on Switzerland
18 September 2017: Living contradictions
BIS says central banks may need to go crypto
Why did the China ban on crypto exchanges cause the price dip?
Japan now biggest in bitcoin exchange
Coincheck first licensed exchange in Japan
First Ethereum blockchain-based lottery?
Eye on ICOs
19 September 2017: What the conspiracy theorists say
'Makes no sense'
Australia considers 'Double Taxation' crypto Relief Bill
Institutional Cryptoeconomics: what is new
Luxury Dubai flats pitched at bitcoin millionaires
Malta names Blockchain Advisory Board
ECB chief rejects Estonian cryptocurrency plans
Xerox applies for blockchain timestamp patent
Changing the auction landscape
Crypto: who does what
20 September 2017: Where have all the traders gone?
Trump's Korea effect?
BCH up, others down
Is it all speculation?
21 September 2017: China syndromes
China syndrome but no crash
No longer a major hub
2017 vs 2013
China's dilemma
22 September 2017: More of same in both directions
You could have gained 81%
... or 410% or lost 22%
But last week was fine
... except for the fast risers
Korean jitters
The Asian hump returns
23 September 2017: Explaining the dip
MGIF! What happened?
Ethereum Price Technical Analysis: Downturn Likely to Extend
'No reason for bitcoin drop'
What use is Bitcoin Cash?
Ripple's XRP continues descending trend
24 September 2017: the hump and the cliff
Ethereum mainly a one-source show?
The strange case of Zcash
25 September 2017: Week 5 Day 1: FUD and phooey
Why I hate technical analysis
Resistance vs support
Hold on and you'll win ? or lose
Is it FUD?
Time for some reporting
Previous days' commentaries
Excel version
Click here for an Excel 1997-2003 version of this table with records for every day until now, free for download. There's also an Excel version of the shorter summary screenshot used above.
Superforecasting
Indicators
I've listed my seven indicators and explanations of what I consider important here.