Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 7 review: Bitcoin rules again
16 October 2017
This was certainly bitcoin's week. Analysts seemed at a loss to explain why, and commentators mostly covered their predictions with counter-predictions.
For example, from livebitcoinnews.com on 14 October:
Last week represented the most bullish week for bitcoin since the genesis block was first mined, as it gained around $1,300 in less than 7 days. Our technical analysis is in favor of a short downwards price correction movement [...] However, the overall trend is still bullish, so bitcoin price will mostly exceed the $6,000 mark during the upcoming week.
Now 54% of crypto market
But its market cap of over $85bn already puts it ahead of Goldman Sachs. Its recovery has wiped out losses from China's actions, and its dominance of the crypto market is increasing (now 54%).
Bitcoin above U.S. Postal Service
It's an indication of how fast things are moving that on 13 October news.bitcoin.com reported bitcoin was just behind Goldman Sachs, though still 81st in company capitalization:
If compared with the market cap of the top 100 global companies according to Pricewaterhouse Coopers, bitcoin would rank 81st, just three places shy of Goldman Sachs – which boasts a market capitalization of $96 billion USD according to the data. Bitcoin would be one place above the United States Postal Service ($93 billion USD), and several places above Nike and Australian mining giant BHP Billiton – who both have a market capitalization of roughly $92 billion USD.
Ethereum recovers too
Similarly, Ethereum recovered from South Korea's banning of ICOs, as bitcoinist noted. See the week's record below. It reached $338.11 on Monday, 16 October, 2% up on the day.
Ripple second-highest trades
Trade volumes showed Ripple being traded heavily in South Korea (Bithumb accounting for 49% or the 15.45% total crypto trading account for XRP, while bitcoin accounted for 41.34% of the 24-hour volume.
One week ago, cryptocompare was reporting: "The cryptocurrency universe is showing nervousness at the current levels."
Previous days' commentaries
Excel version
Click here for an Excel 1997-2003 version of this table with records key records, free for download.
There's also an Excel version of the shorter summary screenshot used above.
Superforecasting
Indicators
I've listed my seven indicators and explanations of what I consider important here.