Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 6 Day 5-6:. ..and up again...

nusefile(39)

Published in

#crypto

Words

922

Reading

5 min

Listen

Play

5-6 October 2017

Still a bitcoin game

Despite my scoring of developments as adding 2% to the acceptability of cryptos worldwide, the percentage probabilities of a 50% price increase by 1 December has not changed much.

Bitcoin Cash continued its descent, likewise OmiseGO and Zcash, over a seven-day period, and Bithumb was a major player with the Korean won. Bitcoin holds its 49% dominance of the crypto market, and its 7-day trading volume ($7.2bn) is five times more than in Ethereum ($1.7bn) as well as Bitcoin Cash ($1.2bn). The other coins are nowhere near. It is still very much a bitcoin game.

Crypto developments

Mopping up

Once again, some crypto events of previous days to savour (I'd planned to use these on 3 October before my computer crashed):

Gaming Firm to Buy $80 Million Stake in Korean Bitcoin Exchange Korbit

PC and mobile gaming firm Nexon has signed a stock trading agreement to acquire the exchange startup Korbit's management rights, reported coindesk on 16 September.

According to local news source, Hankyung, Nexon has agreed to purchase a 65 percent stake in Korbit at a sale price of 91.3 billion Korean won (roughly $80 million).

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Korbit sees roughly 11,500 BTC in daily trading, volumes that place it in the top 15 globally.

Score: +1% for wider validity

US State Department to Host Blockchain Forum on 10 October

This has been everywhere but it is worth noting this report from coindesk on 29 September:

The Blockchain@State initiative is organizing a one-day workshop, bringing together representatives from the various offices within the State Department (plus other parts of the US government) as well as those from the private sector. The goal of the event, according to the group, is to "explore both the policy implications and potential applications" of the tech within the context of US diplomatic efforts.

Set for October 10, the event will be held at the George C. Marshall Center. Though some details are unclear at this time – the opening keynote speaker is only identified as a "High-Level U.S. Government Official," per EventBrite – confirmed speakers include Toomas Ilves, former president of Estonia, and State Department chief information officer Frontis Wiggins.

coindesk notes an inter-agency event was also held in July.

Score +1% for increased validity

In Turkey the first murder for bitcoin committed

Turkish authorities have claimed to investigate the first murder committed in Turkey for bitcoin. The murder took place in Antalya, reported coinfox on 19 September:

A person named Şükrü Ersoy was killed by those who wanted to transfer his assets in bitcoin from his account to their one. Ersoy was found by the police patrolling the Kadriye District of Antalya at 03.00 at night.

The suspects are said to have killed Ersoy in a fight, when they tried to force him to transfer his $40-50,000 in bitcoin to their accounts. [...] One of suspected murders is said to be a close friend of the victim.

Unscored (how crass do you think I am?)

Roger Ver of Bitcoin announces a New Nation

This got a lot of coverage too:

Olivier Janssens, founder of Freedom Investments, and Roger Ver, of Bitcoin Foundation fame, along with a trove of attorneys and other professionals, is seeking to establish its own independent nation, governed by libertarian values, and invites anyone who shares their political views or are just ‘free thinkers’ to join them.

The story was on the coin telegraph on 22 September.

More seriously:

Sixty-seven percent of central banks are experimenting with blockchain technology - study

finextra reported on 22 September:

The first Global Blockchain Benchmarking Study by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), supported by VISA and professional services firm Ernst and Young (EY), has been published.

It says 67 per cent of central banks and 86 per cent of other public sector institutions surveyed are directly experimenting with DLT protocols, with 57 per cent of central banks experimenting with the Ethereum codebase - the public Ethereum network, a permissioned version, or both.

Score: +1% for more validity for cryptos

There's lots more.

This was also announced on 22 September:

Ethereum's Byzantium Hard Fork Postponed For Further Testing

The planned roll-out date for ethereum's "Byzantium" network upgrade is being postponed by just over a week, developers have said. But the date for the hard fork is now "pretty much final" according to developer Hudson Jameson – unless of course, something goes wrong in the test period.

coindesk reported on 22 September:

The delay follows a suggestion made by ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, who recommended in a core developer discussion today that the platform should be conservative relative to previous forks.

"We're not in an emergency situation," Buterin said.

Unscored: awaiting developments

This is well-nigh irresistible:

Russian Prosecutor's Office Summons Burger King for Issuing Cryptocurrency

newsbitcoin.com reported on 20 September:

The Russian prosecutor’s office has summoned Burger King to explain the issuance of its cryptocurrency called Whoppercoin. Burger King is confident that it has not broken any laws since there is currently no regulation for cryptocurrency in Russia.

Unscored: Really, you want me to score it?