Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 4 Day 3: Where have all the traders gone?
20 September 2017
Where have all the traders gone?
After the frenzy of Thursday and Friday last week, the market was comparatively quiet again. There were hardly any crypto developments to signal for their impact on the ecosystem.
Trump's Korea effect?
Bithumb was by far the most active exchange, trading more than twice as much as the No. 2, bitfinex. Almost all was in Korean won. Should we write this down to President Trump's threatening words against North Korea?
Bitcoin Cash was Bithumb's main trade (75%), while Bitfinex's non-crypto exchanges involved U.S. dollars.
BCH up, others down
Looking at the table for major cryptos, we see the result is a 10% increase in the BCH price over 24 hours, while all the other major rivals declined.
Except for Ripple and Dash, all cryptos seem poised to achieve a 50% increase in price by 1 December, according to my assessment of probability, though OmiseGO remains closest to the target (20% off).
Is it all speculation?
Ripple is worst positioned, with a less than even chance of reaching the target, yet its price is next best according to the price (39% off).
This suggests the market is responding to speculative trading rather than to fundamentals.
The variation in results for distance from the start and the seven-day price differences point to the same conclusion.
So long as a few traders/countries can sway the market so forcefully, cryptos are unlikely to achieve their full potential.
Excel version
Click here for an Excel 1997-2003 version of this table with records for every day until now, free for download. There's also an Excel version of the shorter summary screenshot used above.
Superforecasting
Indicators
I've listed my seven indicators and explanations of what I consider important here.