It's looking like betting on teams that have a lot of Draws between them in the past to Draw again isn't such a great idea. Maybe it might have a positive return over a large set of bets but the draw down would kill or at the very least, make you uncomfortable.
Just before i write this off, i'd like to hit a minimum of 15 matches. Here's what fits over the next 1-2 days.
| Match | Prediction | Odds | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| KA Akureyri - Víkingur Reykjavík | Draw | 3.3 | L |
| Breiðablik Kópavogur - Stjarnan Garðabær | Draw | 3.4 | L |
| Seattle Rain vs Ontario Pride | Draw | 3.6 | W |
| Jönköpings Södra - AFC Eskilstuna | Draw | 3.2 | W |
Based on the sample so far, matches where both teams are on unbeaten runs do tend to end up being close - either draws or wins by the odd goal. I'll probably move on to track that instead of just their prior H2H record.
Round 3 return = 6.8 units
Round 3 Profit = 2.8 units
Profit after 3 rounds (15 matches) = -2.7 + 1.85 + 2.8 = 1.95
Profit % after 3 rounds (15 matches) = (1.95/15) x 100% = 13%
While this system swung into profit with the results from Round 3, it needs to be more selective than just betting on teams with a lot of Draws in their H2H records. Form seems to be the natural choice for a filter and let's see how well it does over another set of 15 matches. I just hope that the number of matches to bet on wouldn't be restricted too much.
