Ok by now there are enough posts that explain what HF21 is all about so i won't rehash that. I've mentioned in a couple of my comments that I think the EIP bit is misguided and i'd like to explain why.
Everyone can see that curation on Steemit is broken. Your payout is determined by your network and rarely by the quality of your post. So how would changing the rewards split to 50-50 solve that? If someone close to a whale was getting $10 a post, he'll now $5 a post regardless of how good that post is. Meanwhile, someone who doesn't have a network will now get half of his current pittance.
I've simplified the number calculations but it'll be a major decrease in the earnings.
Oh but you're not factoring in the change of voting behavior that's going to happen! That's a big assumption - that whales aren't actively curating because they aren't rewarded enough and that by rewarding them double, they're going to become active and discerning curators.
The thing is, a whale is like a central banker or head of a major nation, in that they move the market. If a whale says a post is good and worth $10, then it is worth more than a thousand real minnow upvotes. They don't need to care about quality at all.
There are folks making 10 posts a day each getting a whale upvote and making around $15 a post. That's $150 a day on pretty much thin regurgitated content. Instead of powering up, they power down the entire amount they've earned over the week.
Please tell me how HF21 will solve this? They now have to do 20 posts instead of 10?
Steem's value has been dropping and shows no sign of getting back to it's top 30 status. It's both a demand problem and a supply problem. HF21 pretty much wipes out minnows, and maybe even the smaller dolphins.
HF21 also doesn't address the fact that concentrated steem power earns way more steem than they know what to do with and will obviously sell it to diversify their risk or invest elsewhere thus driving down the price of steem.
