I picked Liverpool to win against Real Madrid tonight in my SBC League bet and that's a bet from the heart and not the head. I've been a Liverpool fan since 1993 and have to admit that it hasn't been easy.
The previous owners were dodgy, there have been a lot of terrible buys and even some questionable manager appointments (Roy Hodgson???). Do they stand a chance against Real Madrid?
If we look at the odds and how well the teams clear them, Real Madrid only has a 7% advantage - pretty even, i'd say.
Looking at form, we can see that both teams aren't fans of keeping a clean sheet and their matches tend to be high-scoring. The key for Liverpool winning tonight would be scoring first, which they've done in five of the seven previous games.
Real Madrid's (data on left) defence is vulnerable and they're more prone to giving opponents the opportunity to equalize or head into the lead compared to Liverpool.
Jurgen Klopp has been to six finals and only won once. That's a pretty bad record. On one hand, you can rationalize it by saying that he overachieved in bringing his underdog team to the finals. While there's a lot of truth to that, it isn't very comforting given that Liverpool is the underdog in tonight's match.
Having said that, i think one of Klopp's finest matches was seeing his Dortmund side demolish Real Madrid 4-1 back in 2013. Zidane has a perfect 100% record in finals as a manager while Klopp's is at 17%, losing the last five straight. All streaks have a beginning and an end. Maybe tonight's the night?
Real Madrid are definitely the favorites here. They have the experience, they have the better stats, the chance to make history by winning three in a row etc. There's not a lot in it and if Liverpool play as well as they did against Roma with a high pressing, high tempo game, they could well win it. There's more value to be had picking Liverpool as well :)
