Apologies for missing a day. Sunday's are crazy as there's no help around the house. Here are the predictions for tomorrow's matches. There were 4 that met the criteria as of now. I'm least confident about the Newell match and there's some time for the odds to shift so let's see. If it changes and doesn't fit the criteria within the next 8 hours, i'll remove it.
| Match | Prediction | Odds | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia vs Newell's | Newell's | 2.87 | L |
| Cadiz vs Zaragoza | Cadiz | 2.37 | W |
| Valerenga vs Arendal | Valerenga | 2.5 | L |
| Botafogo vs Fluminese | Botafogo | 2.25 | W |
So far we're on 7/10 correct. I'll be happy with a 66% strike rate over 30 matches.
Edit:
Update 1 - The Cadiz match odds have changed and don't fit the criteria anymore. Valerenga odds have completely flipped and they're now the underdogs. Again, the criteria isn't met.
I'm inclined to keep them as part of the 30 in the dataset. We have to make a decision at some point and ~18 hours seems reasonable.
Update 2: Managed to eke out a 0.62 unit profit. Looking at the results over the past 14 matches, i think doing a final filter of matches where the difference in probability of clearing odds have switched to negative would make a big difference.
I'll see if that's something that can be implemented in today's and tomorrow's matches.
