I'm reading 'The Success Equation -Untangling Skill And Luck in Business, Sports And Investing' right now and it has been quite a good read so far. Some takeaways for sports bettors and betting in general:
In games where there is a big luck component, reversion to mean is the way to play the game. On the other hand, where skill is a bigger factor, there is little mean reversion. E.g. in men's tennis, there wasn't much change in the top 4 players from 2012 to 2016.
The chart shows the author's belief on how much luck influences the outcome of the game. So in hockey, underdogs win a bigger percentage and betting on them rather than the favourite could be a better strategy than in soccer or chess.
In games of pure luck, mean reversion is bound to happen sooner or later. So, in moonsteem for example, a script to start betting after a string of results below 2 might be the way to go.
I'm still only a third of the way through the book and hopefully the rest of the book will be useful.
