Whenever we talk about the future of warfare, drones are probably one of the first things that come to mind in todays world. Why? Easy, just look at what has been happening in Ukraine. We have seen relatively cheap unmanned aircraft destroy expensive military equipment and strike targets far behind enemy lines, It is difficult to ignore the impact these machines are having on modern warfare. Even with the shahed drones in the Iran War, it just burst open a whole new type of warfare.

However, I think we need to be careful about confusing a weapon that is changing warfare with a weapon that will eventually dominate it. Personally, I am not convinced that drones are the future of warfare in the sense that some people seem to suggest. They are certainly part of it, but I think the reality is a lot more complicated.

One of the most interesting developments is how much the distinction between a drone and a missile is beginning to disappear. Take the Shahed drones used by Russia( and Iran) in its war against Ukraine. Early versions relied on relatively simple, inexpensive engines and were designed to overwhelm defences through their numbers and low cost. They were not particularly sophisticated, but they did not need to be. When you can produce large numbers of relatively cheap weapons, even forcing your opponent to spend considerably more money intercepting them becomes a strategic advantage.

Of course, the other side eventually adapts. Ukraine has developed and deployed various countermeasures, including interceptor drones, while Russia has continued to modify its attack drones. The emergence of jet powered versions makes the distinction between an attack drone and a cruise missile even less clear. At some point, you have to wonder whether we are witnessing the rise of an entirely new category of weapon or simply the development of cheaper, mass produced missiles that can be launched in large numbers.

What this demonstrates is not necessarily that drones will dominate future wars, but that military technology is constantly evolving. One side introduces a weapon that gives it an advantage, the other develops a way to counter it, and the first side responds with something new. This cycle is hardly unique to drones if we look back in time and back in history to be honest. It is simply happening at a particularly visible and rapid pace.

Consider what happens when armies develop better electronic warfare systems, improve their air defences, deploy interceptor drones, and adapt their tactics to reduce their vulnerability. This is why I am tiny bit sceptical of the idea that drones will replace conventional military capabilities. They may become increasingly important, but importance is not the same as dominance.

There is also the question of logistics, which I think people sometimes underestimate when discussing military drones. It is easy to focus on the aircraft itself because that is the part we see in videos of battlefield strikes but operating drones requires much more than manufacturing them and sending them into the sky.

That said, I do not think anyone should interpret this as an argument that drones are unimportant. Quite the opposite to be honest, their advantages are too significant for any serious military to ignore. They can carry out missions that would otherwise expose human personnel to unnecessary danger. Unmanned ground and underwater vehicles can also perform tasks that extend far beyond aerial attacks. There is an obvious advantage to sending a machine into a dangerous environment instead of a human being. Machines do not experience fear or fatigue in the same way humans do, although they still depend on maintenance and human oversight. They can also be produced in large numbers without the years of training required to develop an experienced soldier or pilot. When used effectively, they can multiply the capabilities of an existing military force.

The real future of warfare for me will probably be determined by how effectively militaries combine different technologies, adapt to their opponents, protect their supply chains, and develop ways to counter emerging threats. Drones will be part of that equation, but they will not be the entire equation.