I estimate that the CDC’s death count for the pandemic is about twice what it really is, because they add presumed deaths and provisional deaths to their confirmed deaths, which doubles their confirmed death count. I believe that many of these added deaths are really non-virus deaths.
I also estimate that their count of cases of infection is about twice what it really is, based on my comparison of their graph of deaths to their graph of cases.
Because, the latest wave of the pandemic had a disproportionately higher number of cases compared to deaths, than during the first wave. We know now that they were overcounting cases by using the PCR method incorrectly, during the latest wave (only).
But, that means that my estimate of the percentage of deaths per cases is about the same as theirs. I got 1.78% and they got 1.79%. That’s because I used both half the number of deaths and half the number of cases. So, the percentage of deaths to cases is the same for me, compared to the CDC’s exaggerated death count and cases count.
Cases that were not counted are not included in these calculations for myself or the CDC. If we had more cases than we know of, that would bring the rate of deaths per cases DOWN.
Because there are no undetected deaths (just misclassified deaths). So, the CDC’s death count can be higher than it really is, but there is not an unknown number of deaths from the virus pandemic out there somewhere.
The death count is more reliable than the case count, if we consider that some cases remain undetected.
But, since we can not know how many cases remain undetected, a death per cases percentage of 1.78% is a good estimate for what is happening in the US.
If you get COVID, there is about a 98.2% chance of surviving it, on average.
If you got the flu in the 2017-2018 flu season, there was about a 99.86% chance of surviving it, on average.
There were 45 million cases of the flu in the US in 2017-18, and 61,000 people died.
The flu caused between 37.4 million and 42.9 million illnesses in the US during the 2018-19 season; between 531,000 and 647,000 hospitalizations; and between 36,400 and 61,200 deaths, the CDC estimated.
That’s 122,000 flu deaths in two years.
We are now combining the 2020 and 2021 pandemic deaths in the death count. That is unprecedented.
But, so far, as the last wave is subsiding, we have had about four times as many Coronavirus deaths in 2020 and 2021 as we had flu deaths, in a very recent two year period.
