Something that I was hoping to see in this community is a discussion around #sarscov2 #covid19 and #longevity.
There is a lot of discussion out there on the interwebs around the morbidity of #covid19 and how it really isn't that bad. Of course, since its such a transmissible disease, there are going to be A LOT of people contracting it and therefore even a small death rate will lead to huge numbers.
If you listen to Peter Attia's material on COVID19 you will know that the outcomes after contracting the disease aren't death or "back to normal". There is a range.
A percentage of people will not even show symptoms, say 30%. We don't know, but my guess is that the majority of these people won't have ANY life long effects from the disease. However, only time will tell if there is an increase in likelihood of heart disease.
Another percentage will die, the overall average is likely to be lower than what is being published today, the clinical mortality rate is, on average, 1-3%; I think when we get all the numbers in a couple years 1% will be a high number. There are just too many cases out there that never get tested because they didn't show symptoms.
This leaves a majority of ~70% of people that lived, but have a wide range of life altering consequences. Some of them may never be the same and have permanent lung, brain or heart damage. Others may get close to pre-covid, but there is always the case that they will have a shorter life span than if they didn't contract covid.
I live in an area that seems to have the virus under control, but I'm not "going back to normal". I ran the numbers with the case that are in my community today with a few assumptions, including:
When I ran these numbers, and assumed that I ONLY went to high traffic areas (grocery stores, malls, library, etc) 1x a day, which before covid would be "normal" for me. I went to the gym 4x a week, starbucks 3x, the grocery store a couple times, library 3x, etc. Once a day isn't "high" for me in the pre-covid times.
But if I went out of my "bubble" daily and had a potential likelihood of serious consequences of 1/50000 within a year, and that is assuming that there isn't a change in the number of known cases in my community.
There are communities in the US that the liklihood is probably in the 1/1000 range, and for me 1/50000 is way too high. There is no "upside" of the alternative.
Sure, commuting everyday or biking in the city may have higher risks, but there are other benefits taht out weigh those risks, making money and staying fit respecitively.
What is the "benefit" of going to the bar?
