As we all know exit polls are in an indication of how the votes are distributed in Parliament. For now it looks like that AfD, FDP, die Linke and the Greens have all made it into the Bundestag, this means the two large parties SPD and CDU/CSU will lose a significant amount of seats. Merkel and her CDU/CSU will become the largest parties once again, but the SPD has already announced they won't join a coalition with Merkel. So Merkel has to look for other alliances and this might become a more difficult task as most opinion makers envision.
And I still expect a few surprises. The CDU/CSU are usually very strong at the first-past-the-post elections at constituencies. AfD might win a few constituencies in East-Germany, which will be a sign that Merkel's is loosing more power. Don't expect a new Merkel IV coalition will be formed in a month, it probably takes a much longer time.
In a few hours the markets will open, and I'm very curious which direction the EUR/USD will go. I will keep you up to date of this historical German elections. For the first time in many decades a populist party is in the Bundestag.
Update:
Just a 5% gap between AfD and CDU in the Berlin-Ost constituency, this means that it's realistic that in other eastern German constituencies the AfD wins the first-past-the post elections. This is when the real drama of this election will starts, as the populist ghost is back in Europe and returned in Germany. Which is really bad news for the European integration project, commonly known as the EU.
