Hive price has been in an upward trend since September. The price is up 35% from the 26 cents seen on September 12. After a problematic 2-year wait, is the bear market finally over? The answer to this question may be hidden in technical indicators and charts.
Hive recently surpassed the 33-cent level. This level is essential because the 200-day simple and exponential averages are located at this level. The 20, 50, and 100-day averages were crossed before. Passing the 200-day average is a good sign, but it may not always indicate a permanent rise. In the chart below, we see that the price crossed the 200-day simple average several times in the first half of the year, but the price could not remain permanently above the 200-day average.
We use the 200-day average and the weekly RSI to determine the medium-term trend. The weekly RSI shows the primary trend more clearly. Values above 50 indicate an upward trend.
In January and April, the weekly RSI rose above 50 but could not remain in this region permanently. Will the RSI value stay above 50 for a long time? If the RSI value exceeds 55, we can assume that the rise will be permanent. Because in fake breakouts, the RSI value increased to the 53-54 range and returned.
In the chart below, the orange line shows the downtrend of the Hive price, and the red and green stripes show the support and resistance zones.
Last month, the price finally crossed the line, representing a downtrend. Our next target is to pass the 36-37 cent resistance range. If this resistance range is crossed, the RSI will probably rise above 55. Thus, the uptrend will be confirmed, and we will target 50 cents. If 50 cents is struck permanently, we can talk about a bull market for Hive.
In September and October, Hive also broke the over-a-year-old downtrend against BTC. On the other hand, we have yet to discuss an increase in value against BTC.
TL;DR
Hive has entered an upward trend since September. We need to wait a few more weeks to see whether this rise will turn into a medium-term trend. Because when the RSI value rises above 55, the movement becomes more solid.
Hive price is not independent of macroeconomic developments. According to futures pricing, the probability of the FED increasing interest rates in December is below 10%. Although it has not been officially announced, the interest rate increase cycle in the USA has come to an end. More people in the mainstream media are saying that crypto assets will rise. On the other hand, the path of a possible rise will likely be bumpy.
Those who want to buy the momentum can buy after the Hive price permanently exceeds 37 cents. A possible optimism may cause the price to rise to the 50-cent resistance. In a potential price decline, the first resistance is at 32-33 cents. If this zone is crossed, the price may fall to the 27-28 cent support zone again. It is a low probability that the price will fall below this region.
In summary, the Hive price needs to rise more so that we can be sure of the medium-term uptrend.
Thank you for reading.
Cover Image Source: Midjourney App