The first nine months of the year were good for Bitcoin holders. There was a decline or a horizontal trend in the prices of altcoins. The rally in altcoins started in October. The total market value of altcoins increased by 70% in the last three months. The increase in the price of Hive was limited.
There are levels of risk attributed to cryptocurrencies by investors. There is a sequence from low risk to high risk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins with high market value, medium altcoins, altcoins with low market value, and ecosystem tokens. Investors first bought Bitcoin. Then, it was time for Ethereum and coins with large market caps. Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink were purchased. Now it's time for medium-sized coins with a story. Layer 2s, Gamefi coins, and Cosmos ecosystem coins are attracting attention nowadays.
Mid-cap altcoins like Hive are making big rallies in the second year of the bull season. The second year of the bull seasons are 2017, 2021, and 2025. Hive did not exist in 2017, but there was Steem, the previous version of Hive. Steem price increased 25 times in 2017. Hive was born in April 2020, and its value was not significantly changed throughout 2020. In 2021, the price of Hive increased 15 times. We may have to wait until 2025 for Hive's real rally. However, the situation is a little different compared to 2020. At that time, the majority of investors thought that altcoins were doomed. These days, many networks, including Hive, have proven that they are here to stay.
In the Hive price chart below, the orange line indicates a downtrend. The downward trend, which continued for over a year, finally ended in November.
The blue line on the chart shows the 200-day simple average. Hive price has been above its 200-day average for two months. The price rose, receiving support from its 200-day average. Additionally, the weekly RSI is also hovering above the 50 level. These indicators show that the medium-term trend in Hive price is up, but Hive price has not yet been able to make the expected breakout.
In the chart below, green bands show support zones and red bands indicate resistance zones. Although Hive tried four times in the year's second half, the price could not exceed the 37-39 cent band. The 34-35 cent band is a strong resistance zone. The price has been making a band movement for a while. If the 37-39 cent region is exceeded, our path seems open to 50 cents.
When the worst is over during bear markets, Bitcoin rises first. As the bear market ends, Ethereum and other large-cap altcoins rise. Meanwhile, mid-cap coins with strong stories are also making their first rallies. Mid-cap coins like Hive increase when confidence in the market is strengthened.
In previous cycles, Hive and its heir, Steem, rose in the second year of the bull market (2017 and 2021). Therefore, we may have to wait until 2025 for Hive's big rally.
On the other hand, Hive's price is in an uptrend. Hive price must still overcome the 37-39 cent resistance zone to achieve a rally. Since the general atmosphere in the market is positive, we can overcome this resistance in the coming days.
We are in the first weeks of the bull season, and the reasonable price of Hive for this period is in the 45-50 cent range. Because at the end of 1 year, the BTC-based Hive price finally broke its downward trend.
There is a saying in Turkish: "People who wait for the headquarters drink the soup." Nowadays, we are waiting for the headquarters and drinking our soup. The days when we will have a feast will come.
Thank you for reading.
