I'm most familiar with the techniques for scenario planning.
In scenario planning, there is usually a question we want to look at, such as, for instance, what's the future of US-China relations?
Supposing that was a real question, I would go (with a team) read up on the history of the US-China relations, and read up about other things that might affect the relationship between US and China. On my blog, you might already have started reading on some of the things I have written about China - and that's just one side. If I were to continue on this project, I would continue with looking at the US side of things, for instance, the demographics, and the financial situation of the US as a country.
Then I would look at other trends that might impact both countries. Things such as technology, society, the environment, and other related things that might affect the way they treat each other, and the way their people might see themselves and see each other.
I would need to ask people too, but if I'm short of time and resources, I have to go read up their books.
After looking at the various trends, as a team, we could decide on what are the most uncertain ones, and determine their 'polarities' - for instance - one uncertainty is the extent to which they might work together (or not). One polarity of it would be cooperation. Another polarity might be conflict, where they see the world in zero-sum terms.
Here's an example of how that might look like (from this Medium page: https://medium.com/open-source-futures/scenarios-are-useful-governance-trajectories-6819b416e73f)
So what does that mean? There are various ways we can go. For instance, being part of the decentralised collective that we are, we can imagine how those systems might survive under all of these conditions. If both powers cooperate, they might clamp down on decentralised systems, and maintain hegemony of their own centralised financial systems.
If both countries are in conflict with each other, there might be competition too, in the usage of decentralised networks.
In environments where both countries are unable to cooperate, we might see decentralised networks flourish as anyone starts to implement their own systems, and there might be some requirement for coordination and standards among the different players.
In all situations, it would make sense to demonstrate to people the utility of decentralised systems, so that we can generate political support to shield ourselves from clampdowns, and to be responsible in the usage.
The remaining steps would include watching for signposts about how things might develop. Are US and China heading towards conflict? What is the nature of the conflict? How might further scenarios develop?
So hopefully I hope even this short exercise can help people see the value of such tools in how we can prepare against a very, very uncertain future.
