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I'm glad to see someone else really looking into the numbers cause for me it was pretty eye opening.
Another thing to consider is you'll also get a good deal of conflict air drop cards which tend to be the highest value cards in the set overall.
Overall I was handsomely rewarded for going into the Rebellion pre-sale and that convinced me to do the same for CA. Even if I sold my Rebellion for $0 when it leaves Modern I'll be coming out pretty far ahead!
With Survivor mode and updates to land, we may not see cards lose as much value when they rotate out of modern though. Especially these lower print rate ones.
RE: ROI on Conclave Arcana?