|Earnings YTD|HP|HELIOS|GLD|Off Chain| |---|---|---|---|---| |(Day 13)|12.523|0.043|178.88|0| @hiveabbyftp HELIOS price: 1.172 GLD/HELIOS (note to self)

# Hitting a moving target

(Note to readers: I wrote this as I was trying to figure things out. I was annoyed that numbers didn't make sense so I looked at what was going on. At first it seemed random and annoying. In the end I think I finally figured it out... after a couple hours of digging and math hahaha. Hope you enjoy seeing how to attack a problem)

# 8:30PM (Frustration) It is weird. Just a few minutes ago my post was upvoted with 40 HELIOS burned. There was a nice upvote to be sure. ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/23tcNRVyjFV8J8BcWgoSZWWKQrp2Y396Fpp8cCiDaYE8FDERWXEQhRg6NfGj364JrGMr2.png) 87.9% for 1.648 HBD in value ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/23viTgJnsZHHD4nHYcoUgJ3vXBdCpVK3SE59shTLfm8hpNUyknuQNhW9ommaFmu78ruvG.png) It is great value for a burned HELIOS token. However it really makes me wonder. How on earth is the burn value of a HELIOS token calculated? It seems quite arbitrary. I say this because if 40 HELIOS is 87.9% then 40/.879 ==> **45.5** Helios for a 100% vote. There is nothing wrong with that as it is excellent value but just 14 hours ago the maximum was much lower. In fact if you look at @helios.burn account you will see that : ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/23tcNeS8Tp7unwhQEd9ipKs4JxGdsaev6rwZQM2Cu5raciVkJUcZ7yrstkixNGuRGMtoF.png) It was just 36.28 HELIOS for a maximum reward. That's an increase of (45.5-36.28)/36.28*100 ==> **25.4%** in less than a day.

# Why?
I have a sneaky feeling that it comes from the spot price of HELIOS on the hive-engine market. Let me take a look at the price on the SELL side on @helios.gld daily post. ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/23uFMgZqHCrdQM44nNMXz21rSXsQrNv8QL1gtRaUPSrNCDeZj7t91KQoQ935xfq2qKWJ5.png) ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/23tSzLNbhBtnNT4rCB1GDjUUhyYZyzm4HqETMKX96YrvmTfycSorafQXoJYsHu7qKdWJv.png) Weird. * The sell price had only dropped by **10%** from 0.3 to 0.27 Hive * The buy price had also only dropped by **10%** from 0.192 to 0.171 Neither of those match up to the 25% change. However, looking at the value on hive.burn it is showing the lower 0.171 value so maybe it is taking the last trade value on Hive-engine? If it took the 0.171 Hive/Helios value today and a higher buy from 14 hours ago? Maybe that is it? So.... If I look at the hive engine candle chart ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/23wgaPJF3rTy6M6iD7fwPfhShR7CHm7NxJuwr1SEtKNzpw2erH1MPD2XjVqHTZXJCBKBw.png) The "C" (current) price 14 hours ago was 0.294 Hive/Helios vs the 0.171 Hive/Helios when I burned. Let's do a bit more math. .171/.294*100 ==> **58%** of the earlier value so that doesn't make any sense either. # What other numbers do I have to look at? Well, when the helios.voter pays out rewards they do mention a "minimum price cap".

Received from helios.rewards0.242 HELIOS 12 hours ago Congratulations, You earned 20.00% delegators reward. Minimum Price Cap: 0.117. Thank you!

However, while that has increased from 0.05 months ago it has barely changed over the last few days. That seems to be an unlikely place to look. Overall, very confusing! If anyone has ideas on what the HELIOS to burn percentage is that would be great information so its easier to figure out how much to burn for the best rewards and what a fair price to pay in the market is. I think that the @helios.gld account should start paying closer attention to the numbers like estimated vote value to try to get to the bottom of the HELIOS burn mystery. # 10:00PM (Conclusion: Still need to figure it out) Okay maybe this is a frivilous post but honestly when it comes to finance and returns I really like to know how things work. Numbers that look arbitrary or that change significantly over a few hours make me go....What? And honestly it kind of makes sense to question numbers that seem random when it comes to investments. ### Assume: I buy 360 HELIOS thinking that it will give me 10 full upvotes worth roughly $2 (or $1 to me of the post I upvote). Then the price of a full upvote changes to 45.5 overnight. Now I get 7.9 full upvotes. ### My $10 in potential upvotes turns to $ 7.91 in hours. If there is algorithmic reason for the change I can either factor it into my calculations or maybe even turn it to my advantage. For example: If I know it uses the last settled price to calculate the amount then by making a purchase of 1 HELIOS to artificially inflate the last cleared price I could require less HELIOS for the same upvote. Looking at the overall graph? ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cinderclaw.gld/Eo28zdCz25nn4jPqbGb4cz6xSp3Sxxs727c6KEdLKZRmUqRAeECE4qhG9aNfBDrrFGT.png) HELIOS has gone down from 1.6 to .2 in a matter of months. It is now only 1/8th or 12.5% of its value from early December. I hear rumor (I wasn't using HELIOS much then) that 4 HELIOS was a full vote back then. If it dropped 8 fold it makes sense that it takes 8x as much HELIOS now. Or perhaps it is the value of HIVE that causes the value change. Or perhaps some metric I'm totally missing. Except I do know that I'll be scratching my head until I figure this out. Thanks for looking at my rant for the moment :)

# 11:00PM (Figured it out, maybe, after digging) # And after much head scratching... A solution?
### Look at the @helios.voter write-up

@helios.voter curation project - 20% APR delegation reward distribution token. HOLD HELIOS & earn 15%, BURN HELIOS & earn 30% ROI on your posts! You can burn HELIOS tokens (@helios.burn Hive account) to request mentor votes from the @helios.voter curator & trails. ( You can burn HELIOS tokens to receive upvotes at:- https://helios.surf/ )

### Get ready for a bunch of math (sorry) Over the past three days HELIOS was trading at .380, .300, and then .265. Earlier I calculated that: * 1 HELIOS would give a 0.052HBD value and 2.7% vote percent * Half of that would go to the poster so 0.026 HBD * Convert (0.026 HBD / 0.061 HBD/Hive) --> 0.426 HIVE * 0.33 HIVE/HELIOS x 30% return --> 0.426 Hive **And a 0.33 HIVE valuation of HELIOS would be plausible for the past few days and 2.7 vote percent means 37 HELIOS for a full vote** which is what it has been. But now with the lowest sell price being 0.265? And 45.5 HELIOS for a full vote? * 1 HELIOS would give a 0.22% vote which is 0.0423 HBD value * half of that would go to the poster so 0.0212 HBD value * Convert (0.0212 HBD/ 0.062 HBD/HIVE) --> 0.341 HIVE * 0.265 Current Helios/Hive * 1.3 (30% profit) --> 0.3445 HIVE Looks like the math works out. **But it is sure a lot of math!**

# The take home message
You may think that the message here is that you need to do a lot of math to find out how things work. Honestly, that's not it. The real messages are: # Know the details on what you are buying! The helios.voter account says right in the description that you can burn for 30%. Buy it for 0.30 and you should get 0.39 value from the vote. Of course hive engine prices change rapidly but in theory you should get that 30% yield from burning! # Knowing how it works lets you limit risk. If I know how the voter prices things (by increasing the amount of HELIOS needed to burn). Then I can plan accordingly. If the HELIOS price is very low but there are very few sales at the low price? Why not buy before I burn? Right now I can purchase 55 HELIOS and clear everything under 0.300.. that may decrease the actual amount of HELIOS I need to burn in the long run. I'll still have to investigate that further. If I don't want to take that route? I can just look at HELIOS price and know that if the selling price is higher I can get more value when I burn it. When it is low? Hold it :D ***and a fun side fact*** There is a limited number of HELIOS tokens. As they become more scarce their value should rise and the number needed to burn for a valuable upvote should decrease. Those people who have earned them now while its cheap could really reap a profit in the future. **That is not market advice** It is just saying that HELIOS is a token designed to be scarce over time. It doesn't inflate with billions of tokens printed... there is a fixed number. That makes it far more interesting that it looks at first.

Hmm