Wrong question bro. I guess it’s easier to know when we are in a bull market, obvious numbers mega pumping on a daily, so obvious it’s beyond doubt, but you know what the most difficult question is? How to determine the top.
Thing is, by the time the top is in, YOU’RE ALREADY IN TOO DEEP AND ITS ALREADY TOO LATE. But there are always signs. If I remember the last bull run, the following were the signs that marked the top.
Celebrity buys!
When celebrities start aping into coins and posting about it like they’ve been crypto natives since Mt. Gox — that’s usually a blaring red siren. I remember when Paris Hilton, Logan Paul and even Soulja Boy were dropping NFTs like mixtapes.
That stuff doesn’t happen in a bear. It happens at euphoric peaks when retail FOMO is maxed out and the VCs are quietly heading for the exit.
Everyone’s a Genius
Suddenly, everyone’s an expert. Your barber is talking about yield farming, your cousin is launching a memecoin, and your classmate who failed math twice is offering paid Telegram signals lmao.
That’s the kind of noise that drowns out any real alpha, because the game has already been played and now it’s being sold to the last batch of exit liquidity.
“This Time Is Different”
Man, if I hear that phrase one more time. Every bull run, people convince themselves that this time the market is mature, this time we have institutions, this time there’s a real use case.
They said that in 2017 with ICOs, again in 2021 with DeFi and NFTs, and they’ll say it again. It’s always different, until it’s not.
The truth is, most people won’t sell at the top. Not because they didn’t want to but because they thought it would keep going. Greed blinds logic. That’s why I don’t try to catch the top anymore. I scale out, I rotate, I stay liquid. I focus more on survival than sniper precision.
Because if you stay in the game long enough… there’s always another cycle.
Stay sharp out there bredda