I know of about 5 actual banks that are underwater and haven't had their losses realized yet. You can bet on it constantly but like WB says, the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent
the chances of you actually calling when their liquidation occurs is pretty low even with a lot of information. Because once someone starts selling off positions, it's a bolt for the door among their lenders
but the lenders will hold out as long as their risk management allows because if nobody starts liquidation, there's a chance you can still all profit on the upswing
2008 crash was like this. Michael burry read those MBS traunches, determined they would all fail, and then kept his position for something like 3 years before it finally was realized.
I'm no expert, but I don't expect bitcoin's "halving" to have any immediate effect. all it means is that miners are making half as much bitcoin as they were before AFAIK, so it's harder to acquire and maybe will slowly become more valuable? and whether another cryptocurrency's value increases as a result is only loosely tied as general hype increases
crypto is made up numbers and we all agree on what they're worth. human opinion is the most volatile commodity in the universe.
