I wrote last December on millen316.com that I was very skeptical that a true Brexit would take place on 31st March 2019.
So now more than a month after the original leaving date I am not surprised that the United Kingdom (UK)'s exit from the European Union (EU) has been postponed until 31st October. After nearly three years of planning, contingency expenses and political debate, Brexit seems to have lost speed and impetus.
The reason for this postponement has generally been because of the concern about leaving the EU without a deal. Leaving without a deal will mean the UK reverts to rules and tariffs agreed by the World Trade Organisation; however countries have a right to set lower tariffs or agree free trade agreements. As former Australian High Commissioner to thr UK Alexander Downer explained in The Spectator in May 2018, the UK could declare that it will not impose any tariffs on goods from the EU and eliminate the need for additional border controls. The EU may object to this but world trade rules exist to cap any retaliatory action.
From uncertainty stems fear and concerns have been promoted that vital medicines will become unavailable and mortgages and food prices will rise. Yet less promoted is that leaving the EU will result in the abolition of import taxes reducing prices from the rest of the world that aren't in the EU. Added to this is the fear of potential gridlock and queues at the borders. This view fails to account the percentage of incoming freight deriving from EU nations (which could be permitted entry without tariff) or the eight percent increase in border staff in preparation of Brexit.
Immediately following the shock referendum result in 2016, stock prices plummeted and the value of the pound fell; however prices soon rose to reach their previous levels. In the event of a no deal Brexit this may happen again, yet because this is expected it may not be so severe. Even if it is, is this risk sufficient to overrule the result of the largest public vote in UK political history? As Robert Tombs wrote in The Telegraph on November 17, 2018 "The purpose of democracy is not to find the right answer to technical problems, as judged by "experts", but is to maintain an acceptable political community based on consent".
So what do I think will happen next? My opinion is that pressure will increase on the UK Prime Minister Theresa May to reach an agreement with the opposition parties resulting in a second referendum (people's vote) or a general election. I suggest the fear of an economic crash will then result in the 'remainers' winning the vote, the United Kingdom staying in the EU and Brexit failing to take place.
It remains to be seen what twists and turns will take place between now and 31st October yet with Brexit postponed and momentum seemingly grinding to a halt, the best chances of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union may have already passed.
