Weather arbitrage bots on Polymarket are one of the hottest trends right now—users are automating trades by spotting mismatches between real-time NOAA forecasts and Polymarket's weather market odds (temperature buckets, rain probability, etc.). These simple, high-frequency opportunities have turned small stacks into serious profits for many.
Real examples buzzing on X:
One address scaled $1,000 → $24,000 since April 2025 trading London weather markets . Another bot printed $65,000 in profits across NYC, London, and Seoul weather events .
The strategy is beginner-friendly: The bot pulls NOAA forecast data → compares probabilities to Polymarket bucket prices → buys "Yes/No" shares when the forecast shows a strong edge (e.g., 70%+ chance vs. 40% market implied) → sells when odds converge or hit profit targets. Using OpenClaw (local AI agent) + Simmer SDK (@TheSpartanLabs), you can deploy this as a fully autonomous "Clawbot" with zero coding.
This updated guide is clearer, more professional, includes safety tips, and covers everything you need in 2026.
Critical Warning: Prediction markets involve substantial risk of loss—markets can move against you, liquidity can dry up, or forecasts can be wrong. This is not financial advice. Start small, test thoroughly, and only use money you can afford to lose entirely. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Step 1: Install OpenClaw (Local AI Agent) OpenClaw runs on your machine (Mac, Linux, Windows) and executes tasks autonomously.
Open Terminal (Mac/Linux) or PowerShell (Windows).
Install with one command:
Mac/Linux
text
curl -fsSL https://openclaw.ai/install.sh | bash
Windows (PowerShell)
textiwr -useb https://openclaw.ai/install.ps1 | iex
After install, run:
text
openclaw onboard
Step 2: Onboard & Connect AI + Telegram
Accept risks → "Yes"
Mode: Quick Start
Provider: OpenAI (requires ChatGPT Plus subscription)
Auth: OpenAI Codex (ChatGPT Auth) → log in via browser redirect
Select model: openai-codex/gpt-5.2 (or latest available)
Channel: Telegram (Bot API) for mobile-friendly control
Step 3: Create & Pair Your Telegram Bot
In Telegram, message @BotFather → /newbot
Set name & username (e.g., @WeatherClawBot)
Copy the bot token
In terminal:
Paste token
Skills: YES
Node manager: npm
Dependencies: Skip for now
Skip other APIs → Start Gateway
After Gateway starts:
In terminal → Hatch (TUI) → interact via CLI
In your new Telegram bot → send /start → get pairing code
Terminal: openclaw pairing approve telegram
Now control your Clawbot directly in Telegram!
Step 4: Set Up Simmer SDK Agent & Fund It
Simmer (@TheSpartanLabs) lets AI agents trade on Polymarket with pre-built skills (weather trader, arbitrage, etc.).
Go to simmer.markets
Connect EVM wallet (MetaMask, etc. — Polygon network)
Create account → access "agent wallet" (top-right)
Deposit: USDC.e or POL on Polygon (start with $100–$200 for testing)
Your agent now has trading capital.
Step 5: Install Weather Skill & Configure Trading
On Simmer agent page → Overview → Manual install → copy message
(e.g., "Read https://simmer.markets/skill.md ...") Send to Clawbot in Telegram → follow link to claim agent (approve tx) Skills tab → select Weather Trader → copy command (usually clawhub install simmer-weather) Send to Clawbot
Bot is ready! Activate with this optimized config (copy-paste into Telegram chat):
textEntry threshold: 15% (buy when forecast edge ≥15%) Exit threshold: 45% (sell when edge ≥45% or profit target hit) Max position size: $2.00–$5.00 per trade (scale slowly) Locations: NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, London (add more as you test) Max trades per run: 5 Safeguards: Enabled (stop-loss, daily limits) Trend detection: Enabled (avoid fading strong weather patterns) Scan frequency: every 2 minutes Risk mode: Conservative (for $100 start)
Send → bot starts scanning NOAA vs. Polymarket → auto-trades undervalued buckets.
Start tiny: $1–$2 positions first week. Log every trade in Telegram.
Monitor closely: Watch for NOAA updates (especially 6–12 hr forecasts) and Polymarket liquidity.
Optimize over time: Test tighter thresholds (10% entry) or more cities once profitable.
Diversify: Add precipitation or wind markets if available.
Withdraw profits regularly: Move gains to a safe wallet to protect capital.
Backup: Keep OpenClaw running 24/7 (use VPS if laptop sleeps).
Polymarket enforces strict geographic restrictions for regulatory compliance (gambling laws, sanctions, etc.). As of February 2026, trading is unavailable (or severely limited) in these locations:
Fully Blocked Countries (33+): Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo (Kinshasa), Cuba, Donetsk, Ethiopia, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Lebanon, Libya, Luhansk, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Ontario (Canada province), Poland, Russia, Singapore, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States, United States Minor Outlying Islands, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe. (Additional regions like Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk in Ukraine are blocked; some countries may allow "close-only" mode—view/exit but no new trades.)
Final Thoughts OpenClaw + Simmer makes professional weather arbitrage accessible to anyone—no code needed. Automate smart, trade responsibly, and stay updated on configs (I'll share more optimizations as I test).
Questions? Drop them below or tag on X. Good luck—may your forecasts be accurate and your edges sharp! 🚀
If you’re stuck installing OpenClaw, pairing Telegram bots, configuring Simmer weather agents, or setting up basic automated trading logic, I’ve got you.
I’m actively running and testing no-code Polymarket weather arbitrage bots in 2026 — starting with $100-level accounts and focusing on risk-controlled automation, not gambling.
If you want:
✅ OpenClaw installed & secured
✅ Telegram bot paired correctly
✅ Weather or prediction agent configured
✅ Safe starter trading configs (small size, limits, exits)
✅ Clear explanation of what’s actually happening under the hood
👉 Book a free consultation or DM me “CLAWBOT” for details.
