US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? — Discussion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 and due to expire soon, President Trump announced on April 19 that US negotiators will resume direct talks with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Monday, mediated amid mutual ceasefire violation accusations. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports persists, while Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing the blockade and incomplete Lebanon truce; Trump threatens infrastructure strikes if no deal on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, and de-escalation from proxies like Hezbollah. Prior April 11-12 Islamabad talks collapsed over enrichment pause length—US seeking 20 years, Iran offering five—and trust gaps, leaving permanent peace prospects dim despite diplomatic push.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

🔐 Cryptographic Verification

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