Source: https://x.com/LemonSturgis/status/2030773307729965208
So far, this Iran operation is a cascade of worst‑case outcomes.
• Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing tanker traffic by 80–90% and sending oil prices from about $65 to over $110 in just over a week.
• U.S. operational costs: ~$1B per day.
• Iranian drone and missile attacks have killed 7 Americans and wounded 18.
• A likely U.S. strike on Feb 28 hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, killing ~165–175 civilians—mostly schoolgirls aged 7–12z
• Kuwait was expected to have ~18 days of storage before cuts, but began reducing oil output within 2–3 days of the blockade.
• Iraqi oil production from its main southern fields has collapsed by 70%.
• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned Gulf exporters may halt production within days, potentially spiking oil to $150 per barrel within 2-3 weeks.
• U.S. embassy evacuations collapsed into disaster: State Dept delayed approvals 1–4 days, facilities struck, thousands stranded amid closed airspace/airports, slow military/charter rollout.
• Treasury issued a 30‑day OFAC waiver allowing India to continue purchasing Russian oil, reversing years of U.S. pressure discouraging those imports.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader has been replaced by his more hardline son, Mojtaba Khamenei — and with Iran likely heavily protecting him, Trump’s likely push to remove him could take time, prolonging the crisis and its costs.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 growth plunged from 3.0% (Mar 2) to 2.1% (Mar 6) — a 0.9 pp drop in just four days.
• U.S. gas prices jumped from about $2.95 to ~$3.40/gal in a week (≈40–60¢, one of the fastest increases ever), while diesel surged ~50–75¢ to ~$4.30–$4.50.
• U.S. stocks have fallen since Feb 28: S&P 500 −2.0%, Dow −3.0%, Nasdaq −1–2%.
• Despite hopes the strikes might trigger regime collapse, protests so far are nowhere near the scale of the January 2026 nationwide uprising.
• The Fed’s ability to cut rates is constrained even with weak jobs data, as surging oil has pushed up inflation expectations.
Mar 8, 2026, 3:31 PM
Archived URL: https://x.com/LemonSturgis/status/2030773307729965208
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