Hey @exyle, I have made a major realization today. The steem power up/power down mechanism is extremely bad for the price of steem, and is the main reason we have been loosing in ranking on coinmarketcap (yes staking is even worse than the 8% inflation!)
I am not an expert at tokenomics but I have an amazing track record (ironic) at buying or hodling on tops and selling at bottoms (or waiting to buy). In the past few years I have seen my portfolio go up 50X and down 95%. Also lost everything several times with leveraged trading.
Going all in is the worst kind of trading. It allows you to fomo at the top and panic at the bottom and sell everything. However, dollar cost averaging protects investors from their irrationality and creates market pressure for a longer time.
My main argument is that with STEEM, people are allowed to fomo in at the top. They can go all in. But they are not allowed to panic at the bottom. When they panic, they will press "Power down", and steem automatically forces them to dollar cost average over 13 weeks.
Since most people panic at the exact bottom it means that they will be able to sell every week when the steem price is boucing back up. They will get a better price then they would have otherwise. And this will create more selling of steem in terms of dollar volume. So it's really bad for the steem price.
For example, after the PORN airdrop on steem engine, everyone sold their tokens at once. The price crashed terribly. But people kept selling at extremely low prices, making the total dollar amount sold very low. Then the price jumped right back up.
Now imagine that the airdrop holders had only received 50% of their stake, and were going to receive the rest later. Then on the first airdrop day, the crash would look almost exactly the same in both cases, however they will keep selling every week at high prices after the airdrop making the selling pressure a lot higher!
I have a lot more arguments but I don't want this comment to be very long. I am considering writing a post about it, but I really want influential people on STEEM to see it. I thought about using bidbots, but meh... What do you suggest?
RE: STEEM price, an honest assessment.