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Ways to time the top
- Different ta/fa/sentiment analysis ppl are using
- Google searches
- Number of days after halving (halving to peak analysis)
- Pi cycle
- 2 year moving average
- Bitcoin Rainbow bands
- Unrealised profit and loss vs actual Bitcoin price
- Puell multiple
- MVRV Z-Score
- RHODL Ratio
- Reserve Risk
- Woobull’s indicators (on-chain data)
- Hyperinflation fears
- Stablecoin regulation fears
- Maybe mention our model
- Weiss timing model (pure price data)
- Talk about how difficult it is to time it
- Usual mistakes people make like buying in denial phase or in bear trap
- Aka dead cat bounce or relief rally
- Talk about the most mentioned targets for BTC and ETH
- Plan B’s stock to flow model for Bitcoin
- Has us at $107k
- Cross-asset model has us at $255k
- WCP has a price target for ETH of at least $10k
- Since the top cannot be time exactly (analysis), what about an exit plan (strategy)?
- Scaling out i.e. selling into strength and lading out
- Can be done subjectively as data comes in
- Can be done objectively by placing limit orders at various price levels then walking away
▶️ 3Speak
