Where is $HIVE going?
Like many of you, I am not just a member of this community, I am in a lot of crypto communities. In all the others I have a sense of where the leadership is taking their project. I don't see so much about that here, just "things happen to us and we react" price graphs.
We have an opportunity to lead, instead of analyzing our belly button lint. It's really up to us.
It's all Crystal Balls
Nobody knows what is going to happen with $HIVE over the long term, but as you can tell from all the prognosticators around the hive blogs, it is fun to imagine.
I know nothing about investing or math for that matter, but I can draw lines on graphs to make it look like I do.
Lines on Charts and Stuff
Here is one I prepared earlier.
Isn't it pretty?
What it shows is if you draw lines from the green parts and extend them all the way to the right, even the most conservative guestimate puts $HIVE at $3 by this time next year.
Wouldn't that be cool?
That would make my wallet appear to be worth around $30,000. Not enough to retire on, and obviously powering down happens extremely slowly, so I shouldn't plan for anything, but still very nice.
Right in the middle of the picture though? See that spike? We already had an all-time high that exceeded $3 (I guess it depends on which exchange you believe, not sure about that - see my point about not being knowledgeable about this stuff.)
Power Bulls
It's not just drawing lines on charts and extending them all to the right. That All-Time High, that we get high on, shows that Things Happen and we get huge spikes.
The "Things That Happen" usually can't be predicted very well but we have excellent hindsight vision.
One of the things that propelled $DESO, for example, was being listed on Coinbase. That, and a whole bunch of investment, makes $DESO to $HIVE heavily in the former's favor even with the cold winter of crypto upon us.
Hive probably won't attract $200m funding at this point, or attract the same big venture capital firms (Andreessen Horowitz/Sequoia/Coinbase/Winklevoss etc) but what if $HIVE got listed on Coinbase? Would that give us a massive increase?
Could it even 10x $HIVE?
A $10 $HIVE would put my account at $100,000. Again, very very nice, but not enough to retire.
We would definitely be able to get the new kitchen my wife wants, though. Especially as I earn USD but spend CAD. Today the interbank rate puts $100k USD as $127,695 in Canuckbux.
Why NOT $DESO-$HIVE Parity?
Those massive investment firms aside, what has $DESO got that $HIVE doesn't?
Why, at today's price, is $DESO worth $48.50 and $HIVE less than a dollar?
It's not the technology. Hive is, in many ways, superior to DeSo in terms of technology stack AND in recruiting developers, which is why DeSo had to put up a big fund to get more development work happening on their blockchain.
I wouldn't even point to the "big names" on the platform, as many of them are not actually on the platform or are only superficially (we don't even know if it is an assistant or admin person at DeSo typing "good morning" for them).
On the other hand, we have things like Splinterlands. Objectively a success, and with potential for more in future.
My guess is DeSo first, does a better job of marketing. Even then, they have obvious flaws in their approach, just not as flawed as Hive.
For the record, no, I don't think the "documentary" will move the needle for us as a community. And I don't think it was ever intended to.
Second, I think the technical side of DeSo that is better than Hive is the platform is built for developers to find immediately easy and useful. Things like HiveEngine "work" but in a way designed to make the people behind it earn money, not to enable developers. If you want to build on HiveEngine it is going to cost you before you work out if your proof of concept is even possible.
A developer who needs money to learn might as well swim with the big fish and use Etherium - at least ETH has free faucets, test nets, and looks good on your resume.
Hive versus Rally.io
$RALLY has a LOT of attention from speakers and authors. It is THE poster child for "Creator/Community Coins".
What Is Rally (RLY)? Rally (RLY) is a social token-oriented protocol that allows creators to launch their own token and build a digital economy around their work. In this way, creators like streamers, artists, musicians, gamers, athletes or general content creators can tap into their communities and offer benefits and perks to recruit, retain and monetize their following in a frictionless manner.
Each influencer who is accepted onto Rally receives a fully customizable, branded cryptocurrency they can use however they want.
Interestingly, the Rally team has to pump $ into the network so that the community builders can reward their holders. The coin itself is not doing as well as $HIVE.
And again, other than the friction caused by the way HiveEngine works, we actually have better tech because Rally is invite-only and much less developed. Integration-wise, Rally focuses on granting Discord access, but even less elegantly than Patreon.
This is a huge opportunity for us, but we are our own worst enemies, nickel and diming, so I doubt we will grasp it.
I Believe in $HIVE
In my uneducated opinion, $HIVE could grow to $50 and beyond, but only if we as a community decide what we are really about.
I mentioned before that I was stunned that Hive has leadership. It's still a mystery who the leadership is, or if they have a vision. While I see talk of money being spent, I don't really see where it goes or how it benefits the project.
If I, as an engaged member of the community, can't see the vision and how we are going to get there, why would an outsider? Why WOULDN'T they build on Deso or Rally?
Bottom line, for people to buy $HIVE there needs to be BUY-IN, and right now I don't see anything for them to buy into.