@khaleekazi thanks for taking some time to check out the analysis and comment. I appreciate it. I can respect your decision to wait until the selling climax completes before taking a position.

Often times when I speak to people and tell them I am bullish on Bitcoin, the immediate reaction is, then why are you shorting it? The implication of course being you can only be of binary mind (either bear or bull).

I once heard something which changed my perspective on trading, and moved me into swing trading. "The goal of a trader who sees value in an asset should be to acquire as much of that asset as possible." On its face, that statement would seem to imply only buy the asset at the lowest price possible to acquire more. In my mind, that limited perspective removes some very significant tools from the toolbox: sell high/acquire more low and shorting the asset you want to acquire more low.

Exchanges of assets always involve a form of Gresham's Law - currencies of no perceived value crowd out currencies of higher perceived value from marketplaces. Also, I'm of the mindset intrinsic value does not exist - I believe perceived value is the only "form" of value and it's highly contextual.

Ideally, a trader would seek to acquire large sums of low perceived value transactional currency (such as USD) to acquire higher perceived value assets (such as Bitcoin). A swing trader would seek to profit off changes in perceived value in the targeted asset to acquire more of the target asset - so shorting the asset they seek to acquire more of when the perceived value of the asset shifts relative to another makes a ton of sense.

I suppose it's a long winded way of saying learning how to place high probability of success shorts may help you acquire more Bitcoin more quickly. Thanks again for taking some time to check it out and comment.