Ive been following the Ukraine-Russia war very closely for the last 2 years and I consider it very much one of the, if not the most significant geopolitical event of the last 30 years.
The resurfacing of Russian imperialism and their aspiration for western expansion has shown itself gradually and again, like in WW2 the west was too slow to react.
These aspirations werent so obviously present during the early part of Putin being in power. His statements in regards to the Baltic countries joining NATO and the EU in the early 2000s showcase a somewhat accepting demeanor and openness for cooperation with NATO and EU countries.
What started in 2014 with the Illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas escalated in 2022.
Its hard to say why Putin chose that time to invade Ukraine considering that hostilities in the Donbas area were at an all time low. Yearly civilian casualties have dropped to single digits in 2019 and 2020. For reference 50x more people were murdered in Chicago then died in the Donbas region from conflict related deaths. Donbas region has twice the population of Chicago
He might have considered Biden weak and hoped that he would react like Obama in 2014.
He might have considered NATO inert and weak. The western resolve nonexistent.
He might have considered Ukraine slipping further and further from his grasp.
The scary thing is that he could have easily been right had Russia not utterly failed in their march on Kyiv and their 3 day special operation.
If Putin had managed to achieve what he went out to do, we would now be talking about a strong Russia and weak NATO instead of a NATO that is growing and getting stronger and more resolute each day while Russian military is showcasing utter incompetency, corruption and rot.
With Finland entering NATO and Poland investing heavily in its military, eastern Europe is significantly safer than before.
The "Social Media War":
I would say thats an apt description. Not only has there never before been a war with so much video and photo material uploaded to the public forum with live and almost instant updates available to the public but there is an actual information war happening on social media.
No you dumb conspiracy cunts, the Ukraine war isnt fake or a psyop. 😅
I actually loved this narrative being pushed by Right wingers, Russian bots, anti-establishment types and conspiracy theorists for months where they claimed there was no war footage and it was all a hoax. lol
There was a show by Tucker Carlson, I remember vividly from last year after Russia was done flattening Mariupol and murdering thousands of civilians.
He came out with a video of Ukrainian people on the beach and started insinuating that because Ukranians in one part of the country are going to the beach that there might not even be a war, or its not actually that bad.
He did it again with the video of Ukrainians dancing in Kyiv with the statement: "We are sending them money and they are dancing!" 😂
That is when I realized what was going on and that, first of all, Tucker was a evil, lying, manipulative, propagandist piece of shit.
The information war:
Its pointless to explain the value of propaganda and gaining sentiment for your side in the public space.
Russia understands it, Ukraine understands it.
It didnt take Russia long to realize who their allies in the west are.
You of course have those that openly support Russia, parrot their propaganda, remove agency from Ukraine and put the blame for Russian aggression on anyone else except Russia. These people hate everything about the west for personal reasons or theyre classic Twitter grifters.
There are very few of these.
Then you have the more insidious bunch. And I would place Tucker Carlson in there.
See... they cant openly say, as a political figure that they support Russia and they dont want to support Ukraine. This is due to the stupid 1 dimensional existence of US politics where the response to support of one side for any 1 thing is met with the opposition by the other side, for the sake of opposition.
Left tends to like Ukraine, so the right cant like them.
Leftist media likes Ukraine so anyone that hates leftist "MSM" tends to dislike Ukraine.
Hilary likes Ukraine so you must hate Ukraine.
Madonna supports Ukraine and she's woke so you cant support Ukraine.
People are basically sheep. 😅
I like to say:
If I can guess your stance on 10 specific, disconnected issues, from just knowing your stance on 1, you're probably a fucking idiot and not worth talking to. 😂
What these people then do is very interesting. They tend to try and establish a balance of blame between the aggressor and victim by overwhelmingly reporting in a negative light anything that can be reported in a negative light about the victim even when it makes no sense.
Its a "She was wearing a short skirt and was giving him the look." type of argument.
For example:
Zelensky bans in time of war political parties that are on the aggressor side = Dictator
He bans Russian orthodox church assets = Dictator
Ukrainians go to the beach. = There is no war
Ukrainians dance = There is no war.
Azov exists = Ukraine is Nazi
Cant hold elections in a country under occupation = Dictator
etc.
Its a very effective method of supporting Russia without having to actually say it. You simply attack the victim and under report on the aggressor.
This is something you could have seen during the Trump administration in a obviously different context.
Whenever Trump did anything remotely positive, left leaning media and influencers would often not report it at all, criticize it or mention it briefly. When Trump did something stupid or bad, or they assumed it was bad, it was blasted all over the news.
You can go through these peoples content and not find a single instance of them saying they support what Russia is doing, BUT YOU WILL FIND AN OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE IN QUANTITY OF CONTENT ATTACKING UKRAINE IN COMPARISON TO THE QUANTITY OF CONTENT ATTACKING RUSSIA.
And these people are a far more valuable Russian asset than direct supporters. They can hide intent consciously or are simply useful idiots so Russia doesnt care about their intent. 😅
Where we are right now:
- We are at a slower than expected counter-offensive although the expectations of a swifter counter-offensive are based on an unexpectedly successful campaign in Kharkiv region.
- There are some gains made in Zaporizhzhia.
- Bakhmut is being pushed from the flanks by Ukrainians.
- Russians are dug in well and for the moment the Russian coup has been contained.
- There are talks of F-16s coming to Ukraine and Cluster munition is on its way. Hopefully that helps Ukrainians clear the trenches.
- Lviv was hit with rockets 2 days ago. Lviv wasnt a frequent target of Russia lately being so far from the frontlines. Russia targeted a residential area and murdered around 10 civilians.
Ill probably write a few more of these posts since Ive been spending so much time on this topic. A sort of diary of events.