At the very moment I was publishing the report #681, focused on the Venezuelan case, Donald Trump posted one of his truths, announcing that Venezuela would hand over to the United States between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil that Caracas has been unable to sell due to the de facto maritime blockade he imposed. Furthermore, supposedly, he and only he will distribute the profits appropriately to the benefit of both nations. For the Republican leader, controlling the narrative is key, and that's why he strikes first. Later, when statements come out of Miraflores claiming it all boils down to a classic commercial transaction, it's too late. Trump even said that Venezuela will now only buy American-made products in some critical areas, to which acting President Delcy Rodríguez seemed to respond indirectly.
In this sense, whether you like Marco Rubio or not, there's something the Secretary of State said about how to evaluate Rodríguez that applies literally: one shouldn't pay as much attention to what she says as to what she actually does. And, for now, everything is aligned with what the White House would like to see. Venezuelans continue negotiating so calmly with the very government that so flagrantly violated their sovereignty, even though Chavista propaganda is projecting the narrative that everything happening was directed by the deposed leader. Did he also leave orders for the massive release of political prisoners announced today by the head of the National Congress and acting President's brother Jorge Rodríguez? There is a change of command here, a significant rearrangement, and probably, to a certain extent, a regime change. The old American, Venezuela-interested big players like the billionaire Republican donor, and Trump's golf partner Harry Sargeant III, are betting heavily on Rodríguez.
A real-time development 👇
NEW: The United States is pursuing several oil tankers across the Atlantic after a mass departure from Venezuelan waters this weekend. Most of the ships are carrying oil; one flies the Russian flag.
— Christiaan Triebert (
w/ @riley_mellen @EricSchmittNYT ht/ @oballinger https://t.co/pHLJzLe0EY) January 8, 2026
Meanwhile, Trump isn't being too far-fetched when he says Cuba is hanging by a thread, and he is even being sincere when he says there isn't much more pressure to apply here except "going in and blasting the hell out of the place." He knows about the enormous economic warfare mechanism activated since 2019—yes, during his first administration—with the goal of seeing that so dreamed-of and yet so elusive end for the revolutionary regime, which at the same time makes him somewhat shameless. There is a major question, by the way, about how Cuban-Venezuelan relations will remain amid all the pressure Washington—id est, Rubio—is exerting, especially when we talk about oil. Even the "missions," as the deployment of Cuban doctors, teachers, and sports coaches abroad is called, seem to be on the table.
This is all for today’s report.
