The Latin American Report # 490

I have been and will be less present here because I am doing an intensive with my doctoral thesis. The committee is demanding results, and, although being a Ph.D. does not imply any monetary stimulus, and I lose critical income for my family in the meantime, I feel provoked, so I am trying very hard to produce my dissertation document ASAP. Working in ASAP mode does not suit me, as I like to discriminate with much pause the abundant literature that is out there on subversion, psyops, disinformation, propaganda, and the like, and on the other hand, the strategies to counter these obscure efforts from novel fields such as social cybersecurity, which has at Carnegie Mellon University its most prolific research unit—with sustained support from the U.S. Army. A dominant pole has emerged in Switzerland researching on subversion, led by the author Lennart Maschmeyer and his theory of the subversive trilemma—which I discuss in my thesis. Yet, as far as possible, I will stop by to comment on the most relevant events of the last few days, as is the case after this Sunday's elections in Ecuador.

The left does not stand up in Ecuador

Although it seemed that, at least, the correísta candidate Luisa González was going to give a good fight in the runoff, her opponent Daniel Noboa took the usual advantage of being the incumbent candidate, owner of all the state machinery, and seems to have dealt her a severe defeat. González and his main supporter, former President Rafael Correa, who has taken refuge in Belgium alleging political persecution, allege blatant fraud. Correa has complained to the Spanish Chancellor that he has recognized Noboa's victory too hastily. Nevertheless, heavyweights of the Citizen Revolution party have accepted the Florida-born president's victory. Surely, it does not appear that Noboa has fixed much of the (bloody) mess of the South American nation since he came to power in express mode. Insecurity remains rampant despite data reflecting an improvement, and cases such as the children murdered last year in Guayas, burned while still flowering, should continue to generate anger and demanding accountability. The first two months of this year were the most violent for that period in the records, with some 1,530 murders.

The authoritarian and despotic handling of events, such as the violation of the territory of the Mexican embassy in Quito to extract former Vice President Jorge Glas, or the treatment of Vice President Verónica Abad, do not speak very well either. Some powerful ideological vaccines have made people forget that there is another government alternative that, at the time, caused a social shaking, for the better, of the country. Of course, Correa's tenure in Carondelet had its low and (quite) bad moments, perhaps enough for people to prefer to have a millionaire there and also vote his millionaire mother as a congresswoman, so much so that she could become the president of the Legislative Palace. Noboa, and this may be a factor, is one of the three presidents in the region most favored by Trump, albeit behind Bukele—touring Washington right now—and Milei—blessed with fresh funds from the global lender and the World Bank. With less than 3 percent of precincts still to be counted, Noboa has a solid official lead of more than 11 points over González, who exhibits a very low performance even after reveiving some support from indigenous candidate Leonidas Iza. “Correísmo must understand that its offer of Socialism of the 21st century is not palatable for most Ecuadorians, " says an expert. Neither for the markets.

Breaking on tariffs, Mexico