I was eagerly waiting for news from Russia about how the United States once again spoiled their holiday. What can we do about it? During the Olympics, Ukraine was captured by the "junta", and during the New Year russians were dishonored at once in Iran and Moldova (for those who do not know, in Moldova the pro-Russian Dodon is discharged from doing his job by the Constitutional court - democracy in action and independence of different branches of power - and no bloodshed, because it is not characteristic of democracies).
But we know that the Americans are all the time against Russia in this world, so that all is not about iranians or moldovans to take care of themselves (although it's not at all clear why the Islamist regime is pro-Russian, but it's so accepted that if the americans are happy with something, then they necessarily arranged it to shit the Russians). However, as an economist, I should agree that Iran's current authorities are of Russia's interests, because sales of weapons and dual-use products to countries unfriendly with the US come from the Russian Federation. So the more authoritarian or dictatorial regimes, the greater the sale of weapons. Not the best reputation in the world market, but it's pseudoscience geopolitics (if you can not sell anything other than Kalashnikov and nuclear fuel - sell them and multiply sales markets).
At the moment the Iranian protests are seen as a riot, not a coup or revolution. No program, no leaders, no negotiations. There are demands for all good against all bad.
At the same time, I am most interested in how the Iranians institutionalize protests, what demands they raise, how they plan to get out of the situation, whether they are talking about new elections.
In Tunisia, there was no drop in GDP either before or after the "Arab spring", so for the opponents of the change of authorities in the Russian Federation on the basis of fears about the fall in the standard of living - I have good news for you - this can be avoided. In Ukraine, the fall in GDP occurred for reasons unrelated to the change of authorities - the occupation of the Crimea and the Donbas (a fairly industrialized region by some estimates to 12% of GDP), the closure of external exports to the Russian Federation, and attempts to close transit to the countries of Asia and the Caucasus (by land).
So I decided to check education in these countries for the last year - I look at such figures in my favorite The Global Competitiveness Report.
Ukraine is on the 35th place,
Georgia on 87,
Tunisia on 82,
Egypt on 100,
Turkey on 48,
Iran on 51,
Syria — no data,
Yemen on 136,
Russia on 32.
In Russia too, good prospects, we just need to remember the success stories and how they differ from unsuccessful ones (and not to repeat “Libya, Egypt, Syria...“ in the zombie dream). And they are distinguished by the rapid formation of an interim government and the appointment of new elections. It is important to continue international trade and cooperation through any functioning institution of power (in Ukraine, for this purpose, deputies were not allowed to fly out of the country immediately after presidents escape four years ago, people waited for them at airports and send to the parliament to vote for a new government). And, of course, withdraw troops from the Donbass and Crimea - they will be useful for the Russian Federation itself to ensure order, and later with a new democratically elected government it will be possible to discuss compensation for the damage done in the occupied regions and the compensation for the wounded and the families of the killed soldiers.
At the same time, I believe that in case of a riot, the best way to legitimize the current government is to appoint early elections - that is a pre-election race, discussion and competition of programs and confirmation of the current course or the election of a new one. A civilized version of the political development, the most logical, never used by dictators, for they are not very interested whether the "people" want to see their leaders. The task for them to retain power at any cost, regardless of the desire of the majority.
But for example, even at school, our law teacher told us that early elections are very characteristic of the homeland of modern capitalist democracy - Britain.
