Strawberries dipped in chocolate. Photo by Flickr user kristina via Climate.gov
Chocolate might not disappear completely, but climate change is making it a lot harder to grow the cocoa that feeds global demand.
Most of the world’s cocoa (over 70%) comes from West Africa. The problem is that cocoa trees are super sensitive, even small shifts in rain or temperature can ruin a harvest. By 2050, scientists say up to half of today’s cocoa-growing land could become unsuitable. Ghana could lose nearly 40% of its yields, and Côte d’Ivoire up to 23%.
For farmers, this is devastating. Lower yields mean less income, more risk, and higher costs. and for us, It means chocolate prices keep going up, bars keep getting smaller, and the supply chain is stretched thin.
Some companies are trying solutions , planting cocoa under shade, hand-pollinating flowers, paying farmers more.
Mondelēz operates Cocoa Life as a program while Tony’s Chocolonely directly supports farmers through its investments. The initiatives from these companies help the situation but they do not resolve the fundamental issue because climate change disrupts the entire system.
Our choices and the products we support will shape the future of chocolate production. The purchase of sustainable chocolate, supporting responsible brands, and reducing how much we eat will create positive change in the industry.
The production of chocolate will continue, but its availability will decrease, and production costs will increase until 2050. The future survival of chocolate requires us to transform its cultivation methods and reduce our current chocolate indulgence today .
References:
Vigneri, M., & Holmes, R. (2011). Predicting the impact of climate change on the cocoa-growing regions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire [PDF]. Environmental News Service. https://legacy-assets.eenews.net/open_files/assets/2011/10/03/document_cw_01.pdf
Phys.org. (2025, February). Climate change puts African cocoa production under pressure. Phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2025-02-climate-african-cocoa-production-pressure.html
Tony’s Chocolonely invests in farmers. (n.d.). Tony’s Chocolonely. https://tonyschocolonely.com/us/en/stories/impact
Mondelez delays EU deforestation law. (2023, June 15). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/mondelez-delays-eu-deforestation-law-2023-06-15/
