Introduction
A prediction market is a form a financial or information market, where the participants trade in contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events1. It is based on the efficient market hypothesis. The market price will be the best predictor of the event, in a truly efficient prediction market, and no combination of other information can be used or applied to improve the market-generated forecasts. However, it is unlikely that prediction markets are literally efficient. Essentially, prediction market allows participants to stake bets on the probability of occurrence of various events taking place2, such as events related to elections, sports, weather, entertainment, etc. The individuals participating in the markets, by buying shares or ‘betting on’ for a particular a specific outcome, are rewarded on the basis of the accuracy of their prediction.A prediction market can be defined as:
A place where individuals can wager on the future events’ outcomes.
These markets are regarded as an ‘exchange’ where an organisation and individual can tap into the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ for predicting results or asking any question. The prediction markets, similar to the practice of the financial markets, assign a traded price to a belief about the future. They are considered as a disruptive innovation that has yet to penetrate mass investor audience due to the fragility of the existing centralised implementation and excessive regulations. A truly disruptive prediction market platform needs to be universal, decentralised, and permission less.In essence, a prediction market is a vehicle for aggregating information about a future event’s expected outcome. Prediction markets frame themselves as questions about the future, unlike traditional financial markets. For instance, in the context of US elections, a question would be:
Which party will win the White house in 2020? Here, shares are divided among pre-defined options (e.g. Democratic, Republican and Other) with corresponding share prices equalling €1. The share price of each option reflects its probability of occurrence. Individuals have an incentive to purchase shares, which reflect their beliefs about the outcome. The shares of the winning option become redeemable for €1, while other shares become worthless.
The Power and Potential of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are significantly useful for estimating the expectation of the market regarding certain events. These markets have their limitations; however, for predicting the future, they may be beneficial as a supplement to other primitive mechanisms such as politically appointed panels of experts, opinion of surveys, holding committee meetings, and hiring consultants. In the private sector, there is an increasing interest in the prediction markets, growing at a rapid pace.
Types of Prediction Markets
The payoffs, in a prediction market, are tied to future events’ outcomes. The design regarding the link of payoff to the future event can elicit the expectation of the market about the range of different parameters. Prediction markets can be classified with respect to main types of contracts, which include winner-take-all, index and spread.
Applications of the Prediction Market
Over the years, there are a growing number of web-based event markets, which are often run by companies providing a range of gambling and trading services. Some prominent examples include Betfair.com and bet365.com. Prediction markets have been applied in various domains successfully. Mostly, prediction markets were used for the medium-term and short-term forecasts. However, these markets have a huge potential in long-term forecasting and evaluation. Following are some of the previous fields of application for medium- and short-term forecasts:
Market Size and Projections
Prediction markets have observed a significant surge over the last several decades due to their superior ability to effectively aggregate all available information, which is relevant to the outcome of an event. For a variety of applications, these markets have already been implemented with success and have an immense potential. In this field, the companies have thousands of active traders generating millions of dollars of trading volume, where profits are growing exponentially. However, still, majority of the companies are not exploiting the full potential of the prediction markets.
Token Trading
The financial working structure of Moirai is based on the use of a cryptographic token system which is also named as Moirai Token or the MOI. Likewise other cryptographic currency; MOI is also designed as fractionally divisible, interchangeable, and transferable.
Usability and Objectives of MOI
The inclusion of MOI in the new prediction business of Moirai is purposefully made to perform most of the financial activities within the business. The dependency of Moirai on MOI has enhanced its integrity due to being the driving force of the economic elements of the business. The activities fall under the umbrella of MOI are listed below depicting the focal functions and methods of MOI in the business venture.
The MOI will be used by providers and users in the process of predicting the outcomes of events and similarly, the financial profits of the successful predictions will be collected by the users in MOI as well.
The MOI will be purchased initially by users while using traditional money transfer methods with the Moirai or through existing cryptographic currency like Bitcoins, Ethereum and Credit Cards.
The purchase of MOI by the users will be required in such a way that the MOI will be the only mode of currency through which users will be able to participate in the prediction business by both the makers of the market and the creators of the events.
MOI will be used between different providers for promoting of their apps within the Moirai platform for the purpose of payment of syndication fee.
Operators and providers will be buying and using the MOI for generating the events as well as participating in the event while spending and earning in MOI.
It is planned in the business strategy for Moirai that the users and event operators will be required and rather recommended to keep enough reserve of MOI in order to respond to any contingencies occurred during the prediction events.
Generalisation of Cryptographic Currency for Public
Moirai new business venture is primarily focused to introduce the decentralised prediction market to the public and masses. Generally, the mainstream audiences from the public are unfamiliar with the technicalities involved in cryptographic currency and its usage like the block-chain technology. Apart from focusing on the existing and relevant audiences, the Moirai has included in its business plan to expand the network in a way while encourage broader audiences to participate in the events through conventional transactional instruments as well. Moirai will be bringing its cryptographic currency MOI to masses while considering the following dimensions at the ends of all parties.
The generalisation of cryptographic currency in masses under the umbrella of prediction market business will require a lot of expertise at both providers and operators’ part.
Moirai will consider the fact and will divert its strategy according to the hindrances occurred mainly due to the regulatory obligations and restricted policies.
The hindrances of regulations and associated factors will be coped in a way that provision of the Moirai app along with its advertisement may not get affected to reach the masses.
The mode of introducing and acquisition of MOI by the users will be made as much easy as possible to let the users consider it as same as the coins used in video games especially in the online version.
The Moirai app will be addressing and minimising the complexities which may arise in transactions of currencies through Ethereum and the fees to buy certain service or currency.
Moirai has been designed and being developed while taking on board the support of the experts already involved in the trading of stocks, cryptographic currencies, and options trading activities.
The masses will also be brought in the Moirai platform through the promotion and marketing the services by the providers to their existing and potential customers and users.
Moirai will be launched in association with some partner having a large number of existing users. These users will be offered free opening of MOI wallet and ultimately making MOI popular among the huge chunk of providers and users in the mainstream.
Moirai will also bring the convention companies into the mainstream of prediction market who will be earlier involved in the traditional financial systems of trade and earning a profit.
