I have been watching the S&P closely.
I believe we have been in a sideways market primarily because the fed had reduced its balance sheet.
Lately that trend is reversing as can be seen here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
I believe this is the biggest driver of the markets. Liquidity drives prices and there is nothing that impacts liquidity more than that big printing press of the FED.
So while longterm I see risk of a recession, I expect a stock run up, fueled by the fed first. But because the markets have been rallying lately they are heavily overbought and require a reset before they can move up again.
So long term I expect a crash, mid term I expect a rally and short term a correction.
As a result I am waiting for this reset to occur before going long on the SPX itself.
This should make the RSI come down significantly at which point I will be looking for a sign of bottoms and turnarounds before going long.