Elon’s current plan is simple: flood Mars with solar panels and Megapacks. It works great... right up until the planet-wide dust storm that lasts six months and cuts sunlight to 1-5 %.
We love solar. We’ll still use a ton of it. But independence means never praying the sky clears.
Phase 0 (2031-2033): Solar + batteries as the very first layer
First 27 000 Optimus androids land with ~400 MW of foldable solar blankets + Megapacks
Total shipped mass ~2 000 tonnes – basically the Starship cargo margin anyway
On good days: 1-2 kW per android, plenty for digging and building
Reality check: during a big dust storm (like 2022 or worse) output drops 90-95 % for months
Phase 1 (2032-2035): Kilopower takes over the base load
10 kW units shipped flat-packed, one per 20-30 androids at first
By end-2034 we have 2 000+ units → 20-25 MW firm, 24/7/365
Dust storms? Kilopower doesn’t even notice. Tested in 2018, zero moving parts, just heat → electricity
Solar keeps running on top when it can – free bonus energy
Phase 2 (2036-2038): 100 MW-class Fission Surface Power (Martian-built)
Design locked by NASA/DOE today, first unit shipped 2034, copies printed on Mars from 2036
100 MW continuous, 40 % efficiency, fueled once from Earth then runs decades
At this point solar becomes “nice-to-have” – fission is the new baseload king
Phase 3 (2039+): Compact fusion arrives and laughs at all previous limits
1-2 GW in one or two Starships, whenever Earth commercial fusion ships (2038-2042 window)
Energy so abundant we’ll run arc furnaces at night for fun
Real numbers (rough but plausible)
2033 android city (27 000 units + first humans): ~25 MW average need
Solar alone: 400 MW nameplate → 5-25 MW real in storm → colony dies
Solar + 2 000 Kilopowers → 25 MW firm + solar bonus when sunny → survives forever
2037: one fission plant → 100 MW firm → growth unlimited
2039: fusion → per-person power higher than Monaco
Key Takeaways
• Solar + Megapacks are the perfect cheap start – Elon is right
• Kilopower is the unbreakable bridge that turns “hope” into certainty
• Fission in 2037 closes the energy gate forever, fusion in 2039 makes it ridiculous
Reply if this makes the solar-vs-nuclear debate feel settled for you 😊
Next chapter: 8/12 – Closed-Loop Life Support & Food Independence
