Part 3 of the series looked specifically at what payload may be required for the Moon.
Here we look at the even larger numbers required to work toward colonizing Mars.
SpaceX will create the main demand for payload to Mars. They plan to send five Starships to Mars in 2026 as a confirmation that Starship can land successfully.
There will still be up to 100 tons of payload per Starship so that if they land in one piece, scientific work and preparation for people arriving can begin.
The first Starship mission to Mars is just the tip of the iceberg when seen in the light on the longer term plan to establish a human colony there.
SpaceX's plans to launch about 1,000 Starships every two years to Mars during optimal Earth-Mars transfer windows. Not just cargo but also human settlers and the infrastructure needed for a self-sustaining colony.
Let's assume that of the 1,000 Starships, half will be cargo, half people. That means 500 cargo Starships each time.
500 Starships x 100+ tons of payload is 50,000 tons of cargo loaded on the ships before they launch. And Starship may be able to carry 200 tons.
Even with only one launch per day during the prep time, there would still need to be 700+ tons of space payload ready every week. That's the same as 30 big rigs full of cargo somebody needs to be getting ready each week.
Remember, not counting Starlink, the total mass to orbit in 2024 was around 400 metric tons.
More payload to LEO in one week than in 2024 total, every week!
Part 5 of Enough Space Payload start to look at what can be done to ensure enough extra payload can be produced when needed.
