When will the next big storm be?

Since 2012 there has been new data, new discoveries that are changing the panorama in a dramatic way, it is as if we had walked illuminated by the light of a candle and now we had a powerful spotlight that allows us to illuminate the landscape that surrounds us and we realize that we are in the middle of a field devastated by old solar storms that will one day return. Fusa Miyake is a researcher at Nagoya University and in 2012 she was the one who gave the name to the Miyake events, which are much, much more powerful than the Carrington event. Initially, it was estimated that these events occurred every 2,000 years. It is complicated because, for example, in the Middle Ages there were two with a margin of just over 100 years. At that time there were no electrical devices, so the only effect captured by humans was seeing intense auroras in regions where they are not normally seen, there would be other effects such as skin cancer or some health effects, we have no reference, in the Middle Ages people died from other causes, cancer would perhaps be the least dangerous.

The last identified event, there are several more to be confirmed, occurred in 1279, so, if the frequency exists, it should be close to the next Miyake event, and there is also the issue that not all Miyake events are of the same magnitude, the most powerful occurred in 12350 BC, it was the time of the ice age, but it eclipses all the other events discovered to date, that event has been calculated to be about 500 times more intense than the particle storm of 2005. Even if the Carrington event was more powerful than that particle storm of 2005, it would mean that that event from 12350 BC was hundreds of times more powerful than the Carrington event, it is a brutal magnitude, those from the Middle Ages, those that followed one after the other, one was in 774 and another in 993, a little more than 100 years apart, were around 80 times more powerful than the Carrington event. Obviously, an event of this type would knock down our technological civilization for a good season, that would be a great blackout. The problem is that we do not know when or what the symptoms are to know how the matter is going, when it is going to happen, but it is going to happen for sure, for sure, and the problem is that now we are not like in the Middle Ages, in the Middle Ages there were no computers, nor the Internet, nor these things, nor space satellites. The problem is that an event of this type, which in the Middle Ages may not have affected the normal peasant at all, because, even if he had suffered greater radiation, for example, he would end up dying at 40 or 45 years of age from other causes, well now it would affect us in a dramatic and brutal way.

We can shield our electrical networks. Yes, we can shield our space satellites, it will be more complicated, but also, but of course, we have to know how powerful they are, how they work, what causes them, because, what is a solar flare? It is a moment of weakness of the magnetic field. What exactly causes these brutal events? There is a theory that has sometimes been observed in other stars similar to the sun, similar in age to the sun that suffer catastrophic flares from time to time, that this could be it. In that case it can explain the issue of why there does not seem to be a clear pattern, when we receive a solar storm, the normal thing is that a flare occurs, that flare expels a cloud of plasma, which is called coronal mass ejection, and that coronal mass ejection, that cloud travels at more than 1,600,000 km/h and takes between one, two, to three days and is slow to reach the Earth's orbit. It doesn't always get us right. So, if the injection occurs when the Sun is on the other side of the sun from us, then there is no problem, even if it is facing us it also depends on the angle and the position where the Earth is, it could explain that, because no, even if the sun emits those flares on a more or less regular basis, it does not always hit us, but an event of this type, a Miyake event, would have an impact for a few days. It would leave us technologically crushed, it would send us to the pre-industrial era for a season until all the electrical systems, satellites, etc., are recovered, but the Earth's magnetic field would still be there protecting us.

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