Failed Forecasts and Prophecies

The experts expected a G2-type geomagnetic storm from the sun on April 23 and were surprised by a G4 storm, because the injection of coronal mass that produces the storms arrived earlier; a coronal mass injection is a plasma cloud and the plasma is energetically charged particles that in this case are ejected by the sun during flares. The flare that caused the injection that affected us is the one shown below, and was captured by NASA's solar dynamics observatory. It is a filament that exploded in the sun on the 21st. The flares cause two effects, the first being a flash of radiation that reaches us at the speed of light, that is, it takes a little more than 8 minutes to cross the 150 million kilometers that separate us from the sun This Flash can cause radio blackouts and other problems in communication systems, the second effect is the ejection of coronal mass from the plasma cloud, that old slower and takes several days to reach Earth orbit, it does not necessarily have that hitting us can pass us by, although in this case it has hit us squarely. Solar storms cause problems in satellite networks, communications, electrical networks and intercontinental flights, especially those that have to pass through the poles, migratory animals can be affected and the astronauts of the international space station must take refuge in the station security area.

There are no known effects on the health of humans who are on the surface, at ground level, because apart from the magnetic field, the gases in the atmosphere also function as a protective shield; One of the most notable and spectacular effects is the appearance of auroras in regions that are not frequent and this has been clearly seen on the night of April 23 as the northern lights spread across Europe with sightings as far south as on the Mediterranean coast. from Spain. It just so happens that this solar storm coincides with a viral prophecy that was circulating on social networks and some media for at least a couple of months, it was a prophecy about a catastrophic solar storm that would take us to the Middle Ages. Destroying space satellites, power grids, destroying the internet, causing melting ice at the poles, and large-scale forest fires would be the end of human civilization as we know it. The coincidence has been just that a mere coincidence, and if you are reading this publication it is because the internet and communication networks continue to function normally, in the real world it is not possible to forecast solar storms months in advance, only days, at The most we can get is with a margin of a couple of weeks, we can come to suspect that we will have a period of greater or lesser activity depending on sunspots and other signs that can be observed on the sun.

In the longer term, there are cycles of about 11 years where the sun goes from maximum activity to minimum activity, we are currently in cycle 25 since records were kept, this cycle began in December 2019 and we are advancing towards the maximum of solar activity, which will be around July 2025. Space climatologists expected this to be a moderate cycle a quiet cycle but it is turning out to be very intense in fact this is the second G4 storm we have had in a month, the previous one was on March 24th and it was the most intense solar storm in Almost 6 years and despite this the world continues with its normal activity. In conclusion, this time is not the end of humanity either, although we do have to worry since our civilization depends more than ever on technology based on satellites, on electronics and on the activity and experiments that take place in space, the solution it is to reinforce the satellites, improve the electronic systems, update the electrical networks and study our beloved star the sun more and better.

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