With the bullishness coming strong for the US dollar from commercial money, I expected a rally to the 95 level, that may still occur but the odds are decreasing. Gold is now at 1310, above the 1300 level which is very bullish. We need to see gold passing the 1320-1325 level, which should occur in the next week or two if it is planning on staying above 1300 for the short term. The us dollar is a big factor, if the dollar index breaks down below 92, we are in the green for gold. I believe the 1325 level for gold will be when we see a lot of gold stocks 20-30 percent higher (juniors). That price should make them break out of the trading ranges they have been stuck in for the last 6-12 months depending on the stock. I expected gold to have one more pullback to the 1260 level before blasting through 1300 but the first drop from 1300 to 1266 is proving to be enough since its now above 1300. 1310 is still a bit of resistance, which is why I want to see gold up in the 1320s before feeling like 1300 will be strong enough support.
The US dollar is the biggest factor here this second with its over sold condition. Golds commercial shorts are at a neutral level so we may shoot up to the 1340 range then retest the 1300 level before breaking above last years high, and then its a very bullish look after that moment. That would be more if the US dollar falls below 92 before having a bounce.
