The Fourth Turning.
This book is about how generations interact with each other. The authors make the case for four basic archetypes of generations that repeat in a cycle every 80-100 years in Western tradition. For background this is generally referred to as The Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. Each generation embodies one archetype (prophet, nomad, hero, & artist) but experiences life at all of the four different “Turnings” that complete one life cycle. The four Turnings or periods (High, Awakening, Unraveling, & Crisis) map roughly onto the four seasons and the analogy to nature is used repeatedly throughout the book.
This theory had a profound impact on how I interpret global historical events. Perhaps it is most accurate to say this theory and its examples provide a great deal of context in which I can place world events. The most salient point I took from the book is how certain events can crystallize a generational outlook depending on one’s age or position at the time. For example, the Great Depression impacted individuals differently if they were in elementary school, a recent college graduate or recently retired from the work force. I have heard this corroborated with anecdotes that the generation coming to adulthood in the Great Depression was more fiscally conservative than a generation born too late to experience its effects. Without this intense negative experience regarding the economy they became more spendthrift than their parents. It is from these unique vantage points that generational identity emerges and it is the frictions between these outlooks that can have a great degree of influence over world events.
According to the authors’ theory we are currently experiencing the fourth and final turning. This period can be characterized as crisis or winter. It is the time when tensions that may have been building for decades finally have an opportunity to burst into the popular arena and be dealt with. Unfortunately, the other crisis periods in American history have all involved wars (WW2, Civil War, & Revolutionary War), though global violence is not required. Some believe the credit crisis of 2008 represents a marker for crisis. While there is merit to this argument, I do not think we have witnessed the reckoning or catharsis typical of previous fourth turnings. Much remains to be seen however as the current turning will last until the mid 2020s.
