Wet Weather Pattern All Week Long

Over the next week to 10 days at least it appears that we are headed into a wet weather pattern. Actually this pattern has already begun with yesterday's cold front that moved on through and now is stalled out to our south. Over the next 7 to 10 days it will be a matter of watching that front wobble north and south occasionally putting us in warm humid air like it will on Tuesday and then in an onshore flow that it will likely do at the end of the week. It obviously doesn't rain straight through as there will be dry periods however if you are looking for several sunny days in a row with dry air you will have to look elsewhere.

JET STREAM THURSDAY MAY 17, 2018

The upper air flow shows an east west ridge of high pressure across the Atlantic into the Southeast Coast of the US. To the west of this is a trough in the Central Gulf States that will be dropping southward. This opens up a flow of moist tropical air that will basically saturate the atmosphere in the East. To the north a jet across Southern Canada sinks southward just far enough so that an east west boundary is created and all the necessary triggers for rounds of rain and in some cases heavy rain.

GFS RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 19, 2018

The GFS rainfall forecast for the entire week looks wet east of the Mississippi with several inches of total rain forecast. Most of this is spread out over the next 6 days so at least it isn't coming all in one deluge. However with the upper air pattern shown above it will be hard to catch a break of longer than 24 hours or so.

GFS SURFACE MAP TUESDAY MAY 16, 2018

Mothers Day Gloominess Showers Week Ahead Forecast

The next important round of showers and thunderstorms will likely come later Tuesday into Tuesday night as the front buckles northward and sets us up for heavy thunderstorm potential late in the day into Tuesday night. The ebb and flow of that front will determine what happens beyond this and we will work that all out over the next few days as far as the day to day forecast is concerned.